Benfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Benfica. Benfica had 7 days of rest, Alverca 8 and had to travel 22 km.
Away travel22 kmRest days7 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Benfica82%
Draw13%
Alverca5%
Benfica79%
Draw15%
Alverca7%
Benfica82%
Draw13%
Alverca5%
Benfica76%
Draw16%
Alverca8%
Benfica82%
Draw12%
Alverca5%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 42%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalBruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 8
Team strength
Benfica
Alverca
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
81
AttackIn forecast
38
81
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BenficaAlverca
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
0.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
90%
Scored inContext
70%
55%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
15.80
ShotsContext
8.80
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
37%
On target shareContext
39%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.84
64%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.93
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.00
Shots allowedContext
12.60
2.84
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.26
2.25
BlocksContext
3.95
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
83%
Save rateContext
63%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
496
PassesContext
356
426
Accurate passesContext
287
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.73
11.25
FoulsContext
12.75
15.05
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.05
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
0.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
80%
Scored inContext
70%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.10
ShotsContext
9.30
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
39%
On target shareContext
40%
11.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
70%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.60
8.60
Shots allowedContext
11.70
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
2.90
BlocksContext
4.10
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
75%
Save rateContext
60%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
461
PassesContext
368
388
Accurate passesContext
299
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.69
9.60
FoulsContext
12.70
16.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Benfica
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km439 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alverca
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel22 km599 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Benfica |
Alverca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 22 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 439 km | 599 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Benfica
Confirmed XI
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
30N. Otamendi
44Tomás Araújo
15Sidny Lopes Cabral
8F. Aursnes
18L. Barreiro
21A. Schjelderup
27Rafa
25G. Prestianni
14V. Pavlidis
Alverca
Confirmed XI
31Matheus Mendes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
55Francisco Chissumba
18Lincoln
17Vasco Moreira
2Zoubdi
10Chiquinho
9M. Milovanović
20Figueiredo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Benfica+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alverca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Benfica · Home
2.20points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-0
- Scored
- 2.30
- Conceded
- 0.70
Alverca · Away
0.78points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-6
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 2.11
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Benfica | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Tondela | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Estrela | W 4–0 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Rio Ave | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Estoril | W 3–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 A | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Moreirense | W 4–0 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Nacional | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Casa Pia | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Guimaraes | W 3–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Arouca | W 5–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| FC Porto | D 0–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| GIL Vicente | W 2–1 H | L 0–4 H |
| AVS | W 3–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Santa Clara | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 43 of 57 · 2.26 per game | 24 of 57 · 1.26 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Benfica wins0 draws0 Alverca wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 31 Aug 2025Alverca1–2Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Benfica | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.55 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.65 | 2.70 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 55% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 45% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 55% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Benfica | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.50 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Benfica | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.42 | 4.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.47 | 4.07 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 8.21 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 10/19 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 37% 7/19 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 5/19 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.15 | 2.45 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.05 | 4.85 | 5.24 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 14/20 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 12/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Benfica | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.90 | 3.63 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 9.01 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.90 | 5.24 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa Portugal · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 4.90
Red cards0.25league 0.28
Cards 5+38%league 59%
Fouls24.6league 27.0
Penalties0.38league 0.46
Home wins63%league 40%
Benfica1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W20 Sep 25A · AVS3–01
Alverca1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W28 Sep 25H · Guimaraes2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Benfica19 games · scored 37 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
7
16-30
9
3
31-45
9
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
8
4
76-90
Alverca20 games · scored 20 · conceded 34
6
0-15
1
5
16-30
6
8
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
6
61-75
9
4
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 22 · conceded 7
0-15
4
1
16-30
7
3
31-45
6
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
0-15
4
16-30
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
