Benfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 27). Benfica had 20 days of rest, Arouca 20.2 and had to travel 257 km.
Away travel257 kmRest days20 · 20.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Benfica75%
Draw17%
Arouca9%
Benfica75%
Draw16%
Arouca9%
Benfica75%
Draw17%
Arouca9%
Benfica68%
Draw20%
Arouca12%
Benfica75%
Draw16%
Arouca9%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Filipe Claudio Carvalho
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 3
Team strength
Benfica
Arouca
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
81
AttackIn forecast
28
81
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BenficaArouca
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.38
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
0.60
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.65
88%
Scored inContext
63%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.13
ShotsContext
9.00
4.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
37%
On target shareContext
33%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.38
62%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.67
9.88
Shots allowedContext
14.13
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.13
2.13
BlocksContext
3.63
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
90%
Save rateContext
51%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
495
PassesContext
369
425
Accurate passesContext
303
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.57
13.13
FoulsContext
14.88
14.13
Fouls sufferedContext
12.75
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
0.68
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.82
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.90
ShotsContext
9.40
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
32%
On target shareContext
37%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
57%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.40
Shots allowedContext
14.60
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
77%
Save rateContext
57%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
474
PassesContext
375
403
Accurate passesContext
307
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.66
11.60
FoulsContext
15.00
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Benfica
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Arouca
Rest20.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel257 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Benfica |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 20.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 257 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Benfica
Confirmed XI
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
30N. Otamendi
44Tomás Araújo
8F. Aursnes
5E. Barrenechea
20Richard Ríos
25G. Prestianni
10H. Sudakov
11D. Lukébakio
14V. Pavlidis
Arouca
Confirmed XI
1João Valido(G)
16Arnau Solà
3José Fontán
66Omar Fayed
28Tiago Esgaio
8David Simão
22E. van Ee
11Miguel Puche
10Pablo Gozálbez
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Benfica+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arouca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Benfica · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.75
Arouca · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Benfica | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | D 0–0 A | L 0–4 H |
| Rio Ave | D 1–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| AVS | W 3–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 5 of 9 · 1.67 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
5 Benfica wins1 draws0 Arouca wins
Goals per game3.17 – 0.33
Over 2.583%
Both scored17%
Clean sheets83% · 0%
- 13 Apr 2025Benfica2–2Arouca
- 1 Dec 2024Arouca0–2Benfica
- 12 May 2024Benfica5–0Arouca
- 6 Jan 2024Arouca0–3Benfica
- 31 Jan 2023Arouca0–3Benfica
- 5 Aug 2022Benfica4–0Arouca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Benfica | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 3.63 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 63% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 63% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Benfica | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 3.63 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 63% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 63% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Benfica | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.43 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 8.72 | 9.01 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.63 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.88 | 2.63 | |
| Match total | 5.51 | 5.63 | 5.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Benfica | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 8.80 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 5.10 | 5.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho Portugal · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.33league 5.22
Red cards0.00league 0.28
Cards 5+67%league 66%
Fouls32.0league 27.6
Penalties1.00league 0.45
Home wins33%league 36%
Benfica1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W16 Aug 25A · Estrela1–03
Arouca1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D23 Aug 25H · Rio Ave3–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Benfica8 games · scored 13 · conceded 4
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Arouca8 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
5
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 15 · conceded 21
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
