Benfica
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Benfica74.7%fair odds 1.34
Draw16.7%fair odds 5.97
Arouca8.6%fair odds 11.64
Expected goals2.40 – 0.70total 3.10
Likeliest score2–013.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Arouca
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Benfica ↓ · Arouca → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Benfica goals, columns Arouca goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–013.0%7.70
- 1–010.4%9.59
- 3–010.4%9.64
- 2–19.1%11.01
- 1–18.0%12.53
- 3–17.3%13.78
- 4–06.2%16.08
- 0–04.9%20.32
- 4–14.4%22.99
- 2–23.2%31.47
Winning margin
30.3%
Benfica by 3+
fair 3.30
21.9%
Benfica by 2
fair 4.56
22.4%
Benfica by 1
fair 4.46
16.7%
Draw
fair 5.97
6.3%
Arouca by 1
fair 15.96
1.9%
Arouca by 2
fair 53.49
0.5%
Arouca by 3+
fair 218.40
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Benfica goals
9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
22%4+
Arouca goals
50%0
35%1
12%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica win | 74.7% | 75.1% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 16.7% | 16.3% | +0.4 pp |
| Arouca win | 8.6% | 8.6% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.8% | 61.8% | -2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.1% | 47.6% | -1.5 pp |
| Expected goals Benfica | 2.40 | 2.46 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Arouca | 0.70 | 0.73 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Benfica win74.7%1.34
- Draw16.7%5.97
- Arouca win8.6%11.64
- Double chance Benfica or draw91.4%1.09
- Double chance Benfica or Arouca83.3%1.20
- Double chance Arouca or draw25.3%3.95
- Draw no bet Benfica89.7%1.12
- Draw no bet Arouca10.3%9.69
Goals
- Over 0.595.1%1.05
- Over 1.581.9%1.22
- Over 2.559.8%1.67
- Over 3.537.4%2.67
- Over 4.520.1%4.97
- Under 1.518.1%5.52
- Under 2.540.2%2.49
- Under 3.562.6%1.60
Both teams to score
- Yes46.1%2.17
- No53.9%1.86
- Yes and over 2.538.2%2.62
- Benfica win and yes29.9%3.34
- Draw and yes11.8%8.46
- Arouca win and yes4.4%22.64
Team goals
- Benfica over 0.590.9%1.10
- Benfica over 1.569.1%1.45
- Benfica over 2.543.0%2.33
- Arouca over 0.550.3%1.99
- Arouca over 1.515.6%6.42
- Arouca over 2.53.4%29.33
- Benfica clean sheet49.7%2.01
- Arouca clean sheet9.1%10.99
- Benfica win to nil44.8%2.23
- Arouca win to nil4.2%23.94
Handicap
- Benfica −1.552.2%1.91
- Benfica −2.530.3%3.30
- Arouca +1.547.8%2.09
- Arouca +2.569.7%1.43
- Arouca −1.52.3%42.97
- Benfica +1.597.7%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored74
Favourite won54.1%
Avg chance given to result42.0%
1X2 Brier0.576
Over 2.5 called right58.1%
BTTS called right52.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 10 | 37.1% | 20.0% |
| 40–50% | 26 | 44.8% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 20 | 54.2% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 67.1% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 75.4% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 45 of 74 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5881 | 0.5752 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.3% | 42.8% |
| Favourite won | 53.3% | 57.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 45 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 74 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.