Benfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Benfica. Benfica had 4.1 days of rest, Estoril 9.1 and had to travel 22 km.
Away travel22 kmRest days4.1 · 9.1Matches / 14d3 · 1
Benfica87%
Draw8%
Estoril4%
Benfica79%
Draw14%
Estoril7%
Benfica87%
Draw8%
Estoril4%
Benfica82%
Draw11%
Estoril6%
Benfica86%
Draw9%
Estoril4%
Over 2.5 78%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Carvalho
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 27
Team strength
Benfica
Estoril
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
81
AttackIn forecast
21
81
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
17
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BenficaEstoril
4.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
3.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
0.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+1.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.70
100%
Scored inContext
33%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
24.00
ShotsContext
13.67
9.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
40%
On target shareContext
34%
19.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
78%
Box shareContext
59%
19%
ConversionContext
2%
2.50
OffsidesContext
—
5.50
Shots allowedContext
9.67
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
—
BlocksContext
4.50
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.00
50%
Save rateContext
33%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
568
PassesContext
392
502
Accurate passesContext
322
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.33
Team ratingContext
6.71
13.50
FoulsContext
12.00
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
3.35
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
0.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
100%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
22.50
ShotsContext
10.50
8.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
39%
On target shareContext
33%
17.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
75%
Box shareContext
57%
16%
ConversionContext
7%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.40
7.50
Shots allowedContext
11.20
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.20
BlocksContext
3.25
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
78%
Save rateContext
51%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
512
PassesContext
440
441
Accurate passesContext
364
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.22
Team ratingContext
6.68
10.86
FoulsContext
13.10
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Benfica
DW
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km4,813 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 53 · 4 pts vs 3.7 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Benfica |
Estoril |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 27 Aug | 9.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 22 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,813 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Benfica
Confirmed XI
24Samuel Soares(G)
26S. Dahl
2C. Lenglet
44Tomás Araújo
6A. Bah
5E. Barrenechea
18L. Barreiro
25G. Prestianni
10H. Sudakov
27Rafa
14V. Pavlidis
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
15Isma Sierra
4Ferro
25S. Andreou
3Fernando Medrano
5A. Tsoungui
8Xeka
2Ricard Sánchez
12João Carvalho
14Y. Begraoui
7André Lacximicant
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Benfica+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estoril+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Benfica · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Estoril · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
8 Benfica wins0 draws0 Estoril wins
Goals per game2.63 – 0.63
Over 2.575%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets38% · 0%
- 16 May 2026Estoril1–3Benfica
- 3 Jan 2026Benfica3–1Estoril
- 3 May 2025Estoril1–2Benfica
- 23 Dec 2024Benfica3–0Estoril
- 10 Mar 2024Benfica3–1Estoril
- 7 Oct 2023Estoril0–1Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Benfica | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.50 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 5.50 | 2.00 | 4.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 78% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 67% | |
| Games | 2 | 3 |
| Benfica | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.30 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 2.50 | 4.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 30% | 78% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Benfica | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.50 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 11.00 | 8.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Benfica | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.43 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.71 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 9.14 | 9.44 | 8.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Carvalho Portugal · 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.78league 3.94
Red cards0.41league 0.16
Cards 5+63%league 32%
Fouls29.4league 25.5
Penalties0.30league 0.29
Home wins44%league 39%
Benfica2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 Apr 25H · Farense3–21
- W14 Apr 24H · Moreirense3–02
Estoril5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L3 Mar 25A · Sporting CP1–32
- W9 Feb 25H · Boavista2–12
- L13 Aug 23A · Arouca3–42
- W31 Mar 23H · GIL Vicente1–05
- W7 Oct 22A · GIL Vicente1–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Benfica2 games · scored 9 · conceded 2
3
0-15
16-30
31-45
5
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
76-90
Estoril3 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 33 · conceded 11
8
0-15
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
9
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 7 · conceded 18
1
7
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
