Benfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 18). Benfica had 7.9 days of rest, Estrela 5.9 and had to travel 8 km.
Away travel8 kmRest days7.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Benfica82%
Draw13%
Estrela5%
Benfica82%
Draw12%
Estrela5%
Benfica82%
Draw13%
Estrela5%
Benfica76%
Draw16%
Estrela8%
Benfica83%
Draw12%
Estrela5%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 43%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva
- Cards per match 7.1
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 9
Team strength
Benfica
Estrela
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
81
AttackIn forecast
24
81
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BenficaEstrela
2.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.28
0.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.78
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
0.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
94%
Scored inContext
56%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
15.56
ShotsContext
10.94
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.76
36%
On target shareContext
33%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.61
64%
Box shareContext
48%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.07
8.39
Shots allowedContext
12.83
3.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.39
BlocksContext
3.65
2.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.19
83%
Save rateContext
66%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
494
PassesContext
346
424
Accurate passesContext
277
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.67
FoulsContext
13.72
14.39
Fouls sufferedContext
15.11
2.11
Yellow cardsContext
2.56
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
0.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.62
90%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.50
ShotsContext
10.70
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
33%
On target shareContext
34%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
66%
Box shareContext
48%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.89
7.80
Shots allowedContext
13.90
2.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.50
BlocksContext
3.78
1.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
79%
Save rateContext
54%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
462
PassesContext
355
389
Accurate passesContext
287
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.66
10.10
FoulsContext
14.70
15.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Benfica
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km589 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Estrela
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel8 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Benfica |
Estrela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 19 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 8 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 589 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Benfica
Confirmed XI
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
30N. Otamendi
4António Silva
58Daniel Banjaqui
8F. Aursnes
5E. Barrenechea
15Sidny Lopes Cabral
10H. Sudakov
25G. Prestianni
14V. Pavlidis
Estrela
Confirmed XI
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
83Otávio
14Bernardo Schappo
30Luan Patrick
17Jefferson Encada
19Paulo Moreira
6Kevin Höög Jansson
10I. Stoica
28T. Moustier
18Jorge Meireles
7Leandro Antonetti
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Benfica+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estrela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Benfica · Home
2.11points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-0
- Scored
- 2.11
- Conceded
- 0.78
Estrela · Away
1.13points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Benfica | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Estoril | W 3–1 H | L 0–5 HD 1–1 A |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 A | D 3–3 H |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Moreirense | W 4–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Nacional | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Casa Pia | D 2–2 H | W 5–3 A |
| Guimaraes | W 3–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Arouca | W 5–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| FC Porto | D 0–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| GIL Vicente | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| AVS | W 3–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Santa Clara | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Alverca | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Tondela | W 3–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 39 of 51 · 2.29 per game | 19 of 51 · 1.12 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
5 Benfica wins0 draws0 Estrela wins
Goals per game2.20 – 0.60
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets60% · 0%
- 16 Aug 2025Estrela0–1Benfica
- 2 Feb 2025Estrela2–3Benfica
- 24 Aug 2024Benfica1–0Estrela
- 29 Jan 2024Estrela1–4Benfica
- 19 Aug 2023Benfica2–0Estrela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Benfica | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.11 | 1.28 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.61 | 1.78 | |
| Match goals | 2.72 | 3.06 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 56% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 44% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Benfica | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 4.10 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Benfica | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.06 | 3.93 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.65 | 4.73 | |
| Match total | 8.71 | 8.66 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 9/17 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 6/17 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 4/17 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.22 | 2.72 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.72 | 2.78 | |
| Match total | 4.94 | 5.50 | 5.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 12/18 | 78% 14/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 10/18 | 72% 13/18 | |
| Benfica | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 3.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 8.88 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 5.30 | 5.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · David Rafael Oliveira da Silva Portugal · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.78league 5.01
Red cards0.33league 0.29
Cards 5+89%league 59%
Fouls27.7league 27.3
Penalties0.22league 0.46
Home wins44%league 38%
BenficaNo previous matches with this referee.
Estrela1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W26 Apr 25H · FC Porto2–05
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Benfica17 games · scored 33 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
7
16-30
8
3
31-45
7
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
Estrela17 games · scored 18 · conceded 29
1
5
0-15
6
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
2
7
46-60
5
6
61-75
1
1
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
5
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
76-90
Estrela9 games · scored 12 · conceded 21
1
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
6
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
