Benfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Guimaraes. Benfica had 20.9 days of rest, Guimaraes 21.1 and had to travel 311 km.
Away travel311 kmRest days20.9 · 21.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Benfica79%
Draw13%
Guimaraes8%
Benfica79%
Draw14%
Guimaraes7%
Benfica79%
Draw13%
Guimaraes8%
Benfica72%
Draw16%
Guimaraes11%
Benfica77%
Draw14%
Guimaraes8%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
RefereeLuís Miguel Branco Godinho
- Cards per match 1.5
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Benfica
Guimaraes
82
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
81
AttackIn forecast
28
81
DefenceIn forecast
39
86
Form indexContext
21
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGuimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BenficaGuimaraes
3.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.71
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.14
2.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
0.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.71
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-1.01
100%
Scored inContext
57%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
19.00
ShotsContext
18.57
7.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.57
38%
On target shareContext
25%
13.86
Shots in the boxContext
11.29
73%
Box shareContext
60%
17%
ConversionContext
4%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.33
7.57
Shots allowedContext
7.14
2.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.17
2.75
BlocksContext
2.40
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
59%
Save rateContext
63%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
561
PassesContext
467
493
Accurate passesContext
386
88%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.14
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.57
FoulsContext
14.57
15.57
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
2.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
0.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+1.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.79
100%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.57
ShotsContext
17.10
6.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
37%
On target shareContext
25%
11.14
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
67%
Box shareContext
59%
19%
ConversionContext
4%
2.80
OffsidesContext
1.67
8.57
Shots allowedContext
8.00
2.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
2.57
BlocksContext
2.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
71%
Save rateContext
59%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
542
PassesContext
460
476
Accurate passesContext
381
88%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.16
Team ratingContext
6.67
11.67
FoulsContext
13.70
15.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Benfica
WWWWL
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 86 · 12 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Guimaraes
WLDLD
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel311 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 21 · 5 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -2.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Benfica |
Guimaraes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 21.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 311 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 12.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Benfica
Confirmed XI
24Samuel Soares(G)
26S. Dahl
44Tomás Araújo
3A. Circati
6A. Bah
36João Palhinha
18L. Barreiro
21A. Schjelderup
25G. Prestianni
27Rafa
14V. Pavlidis
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
48O. Zych(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
28Thiago Balieiro
21T. Borevković
23T. Strata
8Gonçalo Nogueira
44L. Doucet
7O. Camara
20Samu
17M. Nogueira
9A. Jakupovic
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Benfica+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Benfica · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Guimaraes · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Benfica | Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | W 4–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Casa Pia | W 7–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Academico Viseu | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
6 Benfica wins2 draws0 Guimaraes wins
Goals per game2.63 – 0.38
Over 2.575%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets75% · 13%
- 21 Mar 2026Benfica3–0Guimaraes
- 1 Nov 2025Guimaraes0–3Benfica
- 19 Apr 2025Guimaraes0–3Benfica
- 7 Dec 2024Benfica1–0Guimaraes
- 11 Feb 2024Guimaraes2–2Benfica
- 2 Sep 2023Benfica4–0Guimaraes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Benfica | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.14 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 4.14 | 1.86 | 3.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 43% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 29% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 71% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Benfica | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.90 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 30% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Benfica | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.40 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.71 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.86 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 4.86 | 5.00 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Benfica | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.29 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 8.29 | 8.70 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.80 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luís Miguel Branco Godinho 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards1.50league 4.18
Red cards0.00league 0.22
Cards 5+0%league 44%
Fouls16.0league 25.0
Penalties0.00league 0.34
Home wins0%league 38%
BenficaNo previous matches with this referee.
GuimaraesNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Benfica7 games · scored 22 · conceded 7
4
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
9
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Guimaraes6 games · scored 5 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 29 · conceded 8
4
1
0-15
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
10
3
46-60
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
Guimaraes9 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
