Benfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Benfica. Benfica had 6 days of rest, Moreirense 4.9 and had to travel 304 km.
Away travel304 kmRest days6 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Benfica79%
Draw14%
Moreirense6%
Benfica77%
Draw15%
Moreirense8%
Benfica79%
Draw14%
Moreirense6%
Benfica73%
Draw18%
Moreirense9%
Benfica80%
Draw14%
Moreirense6%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 42%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalIancu Vasilica
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 26
Team strength
Benfica
Moreirense
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
81
AttackIn forecast
17
81
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMoreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BenficaMoreirense
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.37
1.89
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
0.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
93%
Scored inContext
70%
47%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
16.50
ShotsContext
8.30
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.24
35%
On target shareContext
38%
10.93
Shots in the boxContext
4.86
66%
Box shareContext
56%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.67
8.83
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.62
2.47
BlocksContext
3.41
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
81%
Save rateContext
68%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
477
PassesContext
411
405
Accurate passesContext
340
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.67
FoulsContext
13.57
15.57
Fouls sufferedContext
14.87
1.97
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
0.53
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
90%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.20
ShotsContext
6.30
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.40
31%
On target shareContext
38%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
3.78
66%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.33
12.10
Shots allowedContext
13.40
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.10
BlocksContext
3.90
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
79%
Save rateContext
69%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
446
PassesContext
385
372
Accurate passesContext
313
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.74
9.70
FoulsContext
13.90
15.10
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Benfica
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Moreirense
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel304 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Benfica |
Moreirense |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 19 Apr | 4.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 304 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Benfica
Confirmed XI
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
30N. Otamendi
4António Silva
6A. Bah
18L. Barreiro
20Richard Ríos
8F. Aursnes
27Rafa
11D. Lukébakio
14V. Pavlidis
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
2Diogo Travassos
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
70Fabiano
21Rodri Alonso
8M. Stjepanović
10Kiko Bondoso
25Afonso Assis
78Landerson
11Alan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Benfica+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Benfica · Home
2.33points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-5-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Moreirense · Away
1.07points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-7
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 1.47
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Benfica | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A |
| Nacional | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Casa Pia | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Guimaraes | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Arouca | W 2–1 AW 5–0 H | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A |
| FC Porto | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H |
| GIL Vicente | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| AVS | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Alverca | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Tondela | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Estrela | W 4–0 HW 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Rio Ave | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Estoril | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Points | 69 of 87 · 2.38 per game | 39 of 87 · 1.34 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 Benfica wins2 draws0 Moreirense wins
Goals per game2.20 – 0.60
Over 2.560%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets60% · 20%
- 14 Dec 2025Moreirense0–4Benfica
- 8 Feb 2025Benfica3–2Moreirense
- 30 Aug 2024Moreirense1–1Benfica
- 14 Apr 2024Benfica3–0Moreirense
- 3 Dec 2023Moreirense0–0Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Benfica | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.63 | 1.37 | |
| Match goals | 2.73 | 2.47 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 47% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 47% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 7% | 30% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Benfica | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.10 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Benfica | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.31 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.55 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 9.86 | 8.44 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 18/29 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 15/29 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 11/29 | 7% 2/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.97 | 2.07 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.67 | 5.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 20/30 | 60% 18/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 18/30 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Benfica | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.50 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 11.90 | 8.66 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.30 | 5.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Iancu Vasilica Portugal · 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.69league 4.80
Red cards0.31league 0.24
Cards 5+35%league 57%
Fouls28.5league 26.8
Penalties0.19league 0.43
Home wins58%league 41%
Benfica2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Aug 24H · Casa Pia3–00
- W14 Jan 24H · Rio Ave4–11
MoreirenseNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Benfica29 games · scored 58 · conceded 19
5
4
0-15
11
1
16-30
12
4
31-45
11
3
46-60
7
2
61-75
12
5
76-90
Moreirense30 games · scored 33 · conceded 41
8
3
0-15
3
5
16-30
2
6
31-45
7
9
46-60
8
8
61-75
5
10
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
5
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
