Benfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nacional. Benfica had 5.9 days of rest, Nacional 8.1 and had to travel 972 km.
Away travel972 kmRest days5.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Benfica73%
Draw18%
Nacional9%
Benfica81%
Draw13%
Nacional6%
Benfica73%
Draw18%
Nacional9%
Benfica67%
Draw21%
Nacional12%
Benfica74%
Draw18%
Nacional9%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 42%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalFabio Jose Costa Verissimo
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 16
Team strength
Benfica
Nacional
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
81
AttackIn forecast
15
81
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BenficaNacional
2.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
0.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.39
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
93%
Scored inContext
68%
46%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
16.36
ShotsContext
12.18
5.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
35%
On target shareContext
34%
10.68
Shots in the boxContext
7.58
65%
Box shareContext
58%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.16
OffsidesContext
2.10
8.57
Shots allowedContext
13.71
3.04
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.39
2.46
BlocksContext
3.86
2.48
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.07
80%
Save rateContext
69%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
484
PassesContext
319
412
Accurate passesContext
244
85%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.75
FoulsContext
14.21
15.61
Fouls sufferedContext
11.25
2.04
Yellow cardsContext
2.75
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
90%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.40
ShotsContext
13.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
31%
On target shareContext
34%
10.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
65%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.80
11.00
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.30
BlocksContext
2.70
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
72%
Save rateContext
78%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
450
PassesContext
350
375
Accurate passesContext
277
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.81
9.20
FoulsContext
13.80
16.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Benfica
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km141 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nacional
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel972 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Benfica |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 6 Apr | 8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 972 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 141 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Benfica
Confirmed XI
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
30N. Otamendi
4António Silva
17A. Dedić
18L. Barreiro
20Richard Ríos
21A. Schjelderup
27Rafa
25G. Prestianni
14V. Pavlidis
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
16Alan Nuñez
28Liziero
6Matheus Dias
15C. Labidi
7Witi
9J. Ramírez
10Daniel Júnior
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Benfica+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nacional+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Benfica · Home
2.29points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-5-0
- Scored
- 2.36
- Conceded
- 0.71
Nacional · Away
0.79points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-7
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Benfica | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Guimaraes | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Arouca | W 2–1 AW 5–0 H | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H |
| FC Porto | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| GIL Vicente | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| AVS | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| Alverca | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Tondela | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Estrela | W 4–0 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Rio Ave | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Estoril | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Moreirense | W 4–0 A | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Points | 63 of 81 · 2.33 per game | 25 of 81 · 0.93 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 Benfica wins0 draws0 Nacional wins
Goals per game2.33 – 0.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 29 Nov 2025Nacional1–2Benfica
- 8 Mar 2025Benfica3–0Nacional
- 19 Dec 2024Nacional0–2Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Benfica | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.11 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.64 | 1.39 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.50 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 46% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 54% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 46% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 7% | 32% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Benfica | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.00 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Benfica | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 4.37 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.59 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 9.59 | 10.04 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 16/27 | 67% 18/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 13/27 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 9/27 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.21 | 2.96 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.93 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 5.14 | 5.53 | 5.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 19/28 | 75% 21/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 61% 17/28 | 71% 20/28 | |
| Benfica | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.70 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 9.89 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 5.50 | 5.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo Portugal · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.25league 4.80
Red cards0.13league 0.25
Cards 5+81%league 57%
Fouls26.4league 26.9
Penalties0.44league 0.42
Home wins56%league 41%
BenficaNo previous matches with this referee.
Nacional2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D11 Jan 26H · Santa Clara3–34
- D9 Nov 25A · Estrela1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Benfica27 games · scored 54 · conceded 18
3
4
0-15
10
1
16-30
12
4
31-45
11
3
46-60
7
1
61-75
11
5
76-90
Nacional28 games · scored 31 · conceded 39
3
6
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
7
31-45
6
7
46-60
6
7
61-75
7
11
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
3
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
