Benfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Benfica had 6.1 days of rest, Sporting CP 5.1 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days6.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Benfica40%
Draw27%
Sporting CP33%
Benfica40%
Draw27%
Sporting CP33%
Benfica40%
Draw27%
Sporting CP33%
Benfica33%
Draw27%
Sporting CP40%
Benfica40%
Draw27%
Sporting CP33%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 70
Team strength
Benfica
Sporting CP
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
81
AttackIn forecast
75
81
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BenficaSporting CP
2.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.58
0.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
2.33
0.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.58
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
92%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
58%
16.25
ShotsContext
19.83
5.92
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.33
36%
On target shareContext
37%
10.33
Shots in the boxContext
13.17
62%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.11
8.83
Shots allowedContext
7.17
3.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.45
2.08
BlocksContext
2.08
3.09
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
87%
Save rateContext
81%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
508
PassesContext
540
437
Accurate passesContext
473
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.04
Team ratingContext
7.13
12.08
FoulsContext
11.75
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
13.42
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.62
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
60%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.10
ShotsContext
15.80
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
34%
On target shareContext
37%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
58%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.57
8.80
Shots allowedContext
9.10
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
2.00
BlocksContext
2.50
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
83%
Save rateContext
79%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
458
PassesContext
536
388
Accurate passesContext
470
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.00
9.60
FoulsContext
11.70
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Benfica
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,944 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Sporting CP
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Benfica |
Sporting CP |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 5.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,944 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Benfica
Confirmed XI
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
30N. Otamendi
4António Silva
17A. Dedić
5E. Barrenechea
20Richard Ríos
10H. Sudakov
18L. Barreiro
8F. Aursnes
14V. Pavlidis
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
26O. Diomande
22Iván Fresneda
5H. Morita
42M. Hjulmand
8Pote
17Trincão
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Benfica+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Benfica · Home
2.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.83
Sporting CP · Away
3.00points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-0-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Benfica | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional | W 2–1 A | W 4–1 A |
| Casa Pia | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Arouca | W 5–0 H | W 6–0 H |
| FC Porto | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Santa Clara | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Alverca | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Tondela | W 3–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Estrela | W 1–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 18 of 24 · 2.25 per game | 21 of 24 · 2.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Benfica wins3 draws2 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.50
Over 2.567%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets0% · 17%
- 10 May 2025Benfica1–1Sporting CP
- 29 Dec 2024Sporting CP1–0Benfica
- 6 Apr 2024Sporting CP2–1Benfica
- 12 Nov 2023Benfica2–1Sporting CP
- 21 May 2023Sporting CP2–2Benfica
- 15 Jan 2023Benfica2–2Sporting CP
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Benfica | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.08 | 2.58 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.58 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.08 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 42% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 58% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 0% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Benfica | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Benfica | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.27 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.91 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 9.18 | 9.90 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 7/11 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 4/11 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.08 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.83 | 3.17 | |
| Match total | 5.58 | 5.25 | 5.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 10/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 8/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Benfica | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 5.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 3.43 | |
| Match total | 10.75 | 8.72 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 5.00 | 5.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.94league 5.12
Red cards0.41league 0.28
Cards 5+54%league 64%
Fouls27.8league 27.4
Penalties0.34league 0.49
Home wins61%league 35%
Benfica5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 3.2
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- D13 Apr 25H · Arouca2–21
- L25 Jan 25A · Casa Pia1–30
- W23 Dec 24H · Estoril3–01
- L14 Aug 23A · Boavista2–35
- W18 Sep 22H · Maritimo5–01
Sporting CP9 with this referee
Record8-0-1
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.7
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- W31 Oct 25H · Alverca2–01
- W13 Sep 25A · Famalicao2–13
- W2 Feb 25H · Farense3–11
- L5 Dec 24A · Moreirense1–21
- W17 Mar 24H · Boavista6–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Benfica11 games · scored 20 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
4
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
Sporting CP12 games · scored 31 · conceded 6
3
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
31-45
4
46-60
6
2
61-75
9
1
76-90
Benfica9 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 20 · conceded 6
4
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
