Bodo/Glimt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bodo/Glimt30.4%fair odds 3.29
Draw23.7%fair odds 4.21
Borussia Dortmund45.8%fair odds 2.18
Expected goals1.46 – 1.83total 3.29
Likeliest score1–110.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Dortmund
Baseline: average Bundesliga opponent
Attack Downlift
−2%
Expected goals
Baseline1.86Forecast1.83
Conceding Risk
+2%
Expected goals conceded
Baseline1.43Forecast1.46
Clean Sheet
−0.7 pp
Chance of conceding no goals
Baseline23.9%Forecast23.2%
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bodo/Glimt ↓ · Borussia Dortmund → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bodo/Glimt goals, columns Borussia Dortmund goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%9.54
- 1–29.1%10.99
- 2–17.3%13.74
- 2–26.7%15.03
- 0–16.3%15.92
- 0–26.2%16.06
- 1–35.5%18.03
- 1–04.9%20.34
- 0–04.3%23.52
- 2–34.1%24.67
Winning margin
5.2%
Bodo/Glimt by 3+
fair 19.12
8.9%
Bodo/Glimt by 2
fair 11.18
16.3%
Bodo/Glimt by 1
fair 6.15
23.7%
Draw
fair 4.21
20.5%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 4.88
14.0%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 7.14
11.4%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 8.80
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Bodo/Glimt goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Borussia Dortmund goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt win | 30.4% | 30.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 23.7% | 24.0% | -0.2 pp |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 45.8% | 45.4% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.9% | 62.9% | +0.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 65.0% | 64.3% | +0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Bodo/Glimt | 1.46 | 1.45 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 1.83 | 1.80 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bodo/Glimt win30.4%3.29
- Draw23.7%4.21
- Borussia Dortmund win45.8%2.18
- Double chance Bodo/Glimt or draw54.2%1.85
- Double chance Bodo/Glimt or Borussia Dortmund76.3%1.31
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw69.6%1.44
- Draw no bet Bodo/Glimt39.9%2.51
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund60.1%1.66
Goals
- Over 0.595.7%1.04
- Over 1.584.5%1.18
- Over 2.563.9%1.57
- Over 3.541.7%2.40
- Over 4.523.6%4.24
- Under 1.515.5%6.47
- Under 2.536.1%2.77
- Under 3.558.3%1.72
Both teams to score
- Yes65.0%1.54
- No35.0%2.86
- Yes and over 2.554.5%1.83
- Bodo/Glimt win and yes18.6%5.37
- Draw and yes19.5%5.13
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes26.9%3.72
Team goals
- Bodo/Glimt over 0.576.8%1.30
- Bodo/Glimt over 1.542.9%2.33
- Bodo/Glimt over 2.518.2%5.51
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.583.9%1.19
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.554.6%1.83
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.527.7%3.61
- Bodo/Glimt clean sheet16.1%6.22
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet23.2%4.31
- Bodo/Glimt win to nil11.8%8.47
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil18.9%5.28
Handicap
- Bodo/Glimt −1.514.2%7.05
- Bodo/Glimt −2.55.2%19.12
- Borussia Dortmund +1.585.8%1.17
- Borussia Dortmund +2.594.8%1.06
- Borussia Dortmund −1.525.4%3.94
- Bodo/Glimt +1.574.6%1.34
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored28
Favourite won75.0%
Avg chance given to result51.5%
1X2 Brier0.447
Over 2.5 called right71.4%
BTTS called right64.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 39.7% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 10 | 45.8% | 70.0% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 54.9% | 85.7% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 66.6% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 79.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 85.0% | 83.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 28 of 28 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4472 | 0.4566 |
| Avg chance given to result | 51.5% | 52.2% |
| Favourite won | 75.0% | 64.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 17 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 10 of 28 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.