Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund – 14 Oct 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 2 Wed, Oct 14 · 20:00 Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø

Bodo/Glimt 36th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–0Full time

Borussia Dortmund 13th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.

Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 58). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Bodo/Glimt. Bodo/Glimt were without O. Bjørtuft and H. Evjen. Borussia Dortmund were without N. Schlotterbeck and J. Ryerson. Bodo/Glimt had 34 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 5 and had to travel 1,794 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,794 kmRest days34 · 5Matches / 14d0 · 1

Bodo/Glimt31%

Draw23%

Borussia Dortmund46%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.83

Bodo/Glimt28%

Draw25%

Borussia Dortmund47%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.57

Bodo/Glimt31%

Draw23%

Borussia Dortmund46%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.77

Bodo/Glimt24%

Draw21%

Borussia Dortmund55%

Expected goals 1.30 – 2.05

Bodo/Glimt31%

Draw23%

Borussia Dortmund46%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.80

Over 2.5 64% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bodø)

9°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 19 km/h
Humidity 79%

RefereeUrs Schnyder

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.43
Matches 30

Team strength

Bodo/Glimt

Borussia Dortmund

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 82

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

61 AttackIn forecast 69

64 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext 90

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bodo/Glimt

Attack—

Defense risk—

Borussia Dortmund

Attack−2%

Defense risk+2%

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bodo/Glimt

Borussia Dortmund

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.55 xGVia Att/Def 2.03

1.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

+0.65 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

80% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.60 ShotsContext 14.90

5.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

48% On target shareContext 38%

8.56 Shots in the boxContext 10.60

76% Box shareContext 74%

21% ConversionContext 15%

1.40 OffsidesContext 1.50

20.50 Shots allowedContext 10.90

6.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

6.50 BlocksContext 2.75

4.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

68% Save rateContext 80%

46% PossessionIn forecast 54%

481 PassesContext 518

400 Accurate passesContext 442

83% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.08 Team ratingContext 7.09

10.00 FoulsContext 12.40

9.22 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bodo/Glimt L

Rest34 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 47 · 0 pts vs 0.3 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected

L10 SepA · Bayern München0–50.4 xPts

Borussia Dortmund WWWWD

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,794 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 90 · 13 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · +3.4 vs expected

D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts
W8 SepH · Villarreal3–21.8 xPts
W5 SepA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–21.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bodo/Glimt	Borussia Dortmund
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	34UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Sep	5Bundesliga 2026-2027, 9 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,794 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bodo/Glimt Confirmed XI

4-4-2

12N. Haikin(G)

15F. Bjørkan 5H. Aleesami 6J. Gundersen 20F. Sjøvold

10J. Hauge 19S. Fet 7P. Berg 8S. Auklend

9A. Helmersen 11O. Blomberg

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Borussia Dortmund Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1G. Kobel(G)

5A. Bensebaini 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou

14M. Beier 25J. Veerman 7J. Bellingham 24D. Svensson

40Samuele Inacio 19K. Karetsas

21Fábio Silva

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bodo/Glimt Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals

Attack line −8.5% · Defence line −21.0% of weighted minutes

DEF O. Bjørtuft Starter 7.04 Def −14.8%
MID H. Evjen Starter 6.87 Att −6.4% Def −4.7%
MID J. Kitolano Rotation 6.31 Att −2.1% Def −1.6%

3 without recent minutes (no impact): A. Mikkelsen, M. Riisnæs, I. Sjong

Borussia Dortmund Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals

Attack line −4.7% · Defence line −27.9% of weighted minutes

DEF N. Schlotterbeck Core 7.58 Def −15.9%
DEF J. Ryerson Starter 6.94 Def −9.8%
MID C. Chukwuemeka Rotation 6.56 Att −2.1% Def −0.9%
MID E. Can Rotation 7.01 Att −1.9% Def −0.8%
MID G. Konstantelias Rotation 6.90 Att −0.8% Def −0.3%
DEF F. Mané Depth 6.77 Def −0.2%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): J. Lerma

Total impact vs full squads

Bodo/Glimt+0.3 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Borussia Dortmund+0.2 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Bodo/Glimt · Home No home games yet this season.

Borussia Dortmund · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Bodo/Glimt wins1 draws0 Borussia Dortmund wins

Goals per game2.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

10 Dec 2025Borussia Dortmund2–2Bodo/Glimt

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bodo/Glimt	Borussia Dortmund	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	3.00
Conceded per game	5.00	2.00
Match goals	5.00	5.00	3.29
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	64%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	64%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Bodo/Glimt	Borussia Dortmund	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	2.30
Conceded per game	2.20	0.90
Match goals	4.60	3.20	3.29
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	100%	60%	64%
Over 3.5	80%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	64%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	5	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bodo/Glimt	Borussia Dortmund	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	9.00
Corners conceded	6.00	7.00
Match total	9.00	16.00	9.36
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	0.00	3.00
Match total	2.00	4.00	3.82
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Bodo/Glimt	Borussia Dortmund	League
Corners
Corners won	3.56	5.00
Corners conceded	7.44	4.11
Match total	11.00	9.11	9.36
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.90
Opponent cards	2.10	1.50
Match total	3.80	3.40	3.82
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Urs Schnyder 30 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.30league 3.62

Red cards0.23league 0.17

Cards 5+50%league 38%

Fouls20.2league 22.8

Penalties0.43league 0.21

Home wins70%league 59%

Bodo/Glimt

No previous matches with this referee.

Borussia Dortmund

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.