Bodo/Glimt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bodo/Glimt51.1%fair odds 1.96
Draw24.6%fair odds 4.07
Lille24.3%fair odds 4.11
Expected goals1.77 – 1.16total 2.93
Likeliest score1–111.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lille
Baseline: average Ligue 1 opponent
Attack Downlift
−20%
Expected goals
Baseline1.45Forecast1.16
Conceding Risk
+20%
Expected goals conceded
Baseline1.47Forecast1.77
Clean Sheet
−6.0 pp
Chance of conceding no goals
Baseline23.0%Forecast17.0%
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bodo/Glimt ↓ · Lille → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bodo/Glimt goals, columns Lille goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%8.66
- 2–19.7%10.30
- 1–08.9%11.25
- 2–08.4%11.93
- 1–26.4%15.74
- 0–05.9%16.86
- 3–15.7%17.47
- 2–25.6%17.79
- 0–15.6%17.81
- 3–04.9%20.23
Winning margin
12.8%
Bodo/Glimt by 3+
fair 7.82
15.8%
Bodo/Glimt by 2
fair 6.33
22.5%
Bodo/Glimt by 1
fair 4.44
24.6%
Draw
fair 4.07
14.5%
Lille by 1
fair 6.87
6.8%
Lille by 2
fair 14.79
3.0%
Lille by 3+
fair 33.18
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Bodo/Glimt goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
10%4+
Lille goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt win | 51.1% | 51.2% | -0.0 pp |
| Draw | 24.6% | 24.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Lille win | 24.3% | 24.2% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 55.7% | +0.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.5% | 57.2% | +0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Bodo/Glimt | 1.77 | 1.76 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Lille | 1.16 | 1.15 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bodo/Glimt win51.1%1.96
- Draw24.6%4.07
- Lille win24.3%4.11
- Double chance Bodo/Glimt or draw75.7%1.32
- Double chance Bodo/Glimt or Lille75.4%1.33
- Double chance Lille or draw48.9%2.05
- Draw no bet Bodo/Glimt67.8%1.48
- Draw no bet Lille32.2%3.10
Goals
- Over 0.594.1%1.06
- Over 1.579.6%1.26
- Over 2.556.0%1.78
- Over 3.533.7%2.97
- Over 4.517.3%5.79
- Under 1.520.4%4.89
- Under 2.544.0%2.28
- Under 3.566.3%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes57.5%1.74
- No42.5%2.35
- Yes and over 2.545.9%2.18
- Bodo/Glimt win and yes25.6%3.90
- Draw and yes18.6%5.37
- Lille win and yes13.2%7.56
Team goals
- Bodo/Glimt over 0.583.0%1.21
- Bodo/Glimt over 1.552.8%1.89
- Bodo/Glimt over 2.526.1%3.83
- Lille over 0.568.6%1.46
- Lille over 1.532.2%3.10
- Lille over 2.511.2%8.96
- Bodo/Glimt clean sheet31.4%3.18
- Lille clean sheet17.0%5.87
- Bodo/Glimt win to nil25.5%3.93
- Lille win to nil11.1%9.00
Handicap
- Bodo/Glimt −1.528.6%3.50
- Bodo/Glimt −2.512.8%7.82
- Lille +1.571.4%1.40
- Lille +2.587.2%1.15
- Lille −1.59.8%10.23
- Bodo/Glimt +1.590.2%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored35
Favourite won71.4%
Avg chance given to result49.9%
1X2 Brier0.462
Over 2.5 called right74.3%
BTTS called right62.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 39.6% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 13 | 45.7% | 69.2% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 55.5% | 77.8% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.7% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 79.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 85.0% | 83.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 35 of 35 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4618 | 0.4614 |
| Avg chance given to result | 49.9% | 50.9% |
| Favourite won | 71.4% | 65.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 17 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 16 of 35 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.