Bologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 54). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Bologna. Bologna had 5 days of rest, AC Milan 9 and had to travel 201 km.
Away travel201 kmRest days5 · 9Matches / 14d3 · 1
Bologna35%
Draw28%
AC Milan36%
Bologna32%
Draw27%
AC Milan41%
Bologna36%
Draw29%
AC Milan36%
Bologna29%
Draw28%
AC Milan43%
Bologna36%
Draw27%
AC Milan37%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bologna)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyGianluca Manganiello
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 53
Team strength
Bologna
AC Milan
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
66
35
AttackIn forecast
72
48
DefenceIn forecast
69
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BolognaAC Milan
1.45
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.59
1.23
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.77
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
77%
Scored inContext
95%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
12.91
ShotsContext
13.41
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.59
30%
On target shareContext
34%
8.38
Shots in the boxContext
9.27
63%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.41
OffsidesContext
2.05
10.50
Shots allowedContext
10.77
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.85
3.06
BlocksContext
3.50
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.32
70%
Save rateContext
84%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
423
PassesContext
475
349
Accurate passesContext
416
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.00
13.77
FoulsContext
9.55
14.36
Fouls sufferedContext
11.27
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.59
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
80%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.80
ShotsContext
14.30
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
31%
On target shareContext
33%
10.11
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
64%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.22
10.70
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.14
BlocksContext
3.22
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
64%
Save rateContext
81%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
433
PassesContext
488
358
Accurate passesContext
428
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.04
13.40
FoulsContext
9.30
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bologna
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,713 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
AC Milan
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel201 km957 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bologna |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan | 9Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 201 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,713 km | 957 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 7 | 0 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.7 | 10 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bologna
Confirmed XI
13F. Ravaglia(G)
33Juan Miranda
16N. Casale
14T. Heggem
20N. Zortea
19L. Ferguson
8R. Freuler
11J. Rowe
21J. Odgaard
7R. Orsolini
9S. Castro
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
5K. De Winter
33D. Bartesaghi
12A. Rabiot
14L. Modrić
19Y. Fofana
24Z. Athekame
18C. Nkunku
8R. Loftus-Cheek
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bologna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AC Milan
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bologna-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- AC Milan+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Bologna · Home
1.40points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-4
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.00
AC Milan · Away
2.09points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-0
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 0.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Bologna | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Fiorentina | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Verona | W 3–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Como | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Inter | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Sassuolo | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Juventus | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Lazio | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Cremonese | L 1–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Udinese | W 3–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Napoli | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Parma | W 3–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Torino | D 0–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Pisa | W 4–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Lecce | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 30 of 63 · 1.43 per game | 44 of 63 · 2.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Bologna wins3 draws5 AC Milan wins
Goals per game0.89 – 1.78
Over 2.544%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets11% · 44%
- 14 Sep 2025AC Milan1–0Bologna
- 9 May 2025AC Milan3–1Bologna
- 27 Feb 2025Bologna2–1AC Milan
- 27 Jan 2024AC Milan2–2Bologna
- 21 Aug 2023Bologna0–2AC Milan
- 15 Apr 2023Bologna1–1AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bologna | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.45 | 1.59 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.23 | 0.77 | |
| Match goals | 2.68 | 2.36 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 45% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 55% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 5% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Bologna | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bologna | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.68 | 4.95 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.09 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.77 | 9.55 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 11/22 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 8/22 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 6/22 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 1.68 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.36 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.54 | 3.68 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 15/22 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 13/22 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Bologna | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 9.90 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.60 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gianluca Manganiello Italy · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.45league 3.82
Red cards0.15league 0.17
Cards 5+34%league 36%
Fouls24.1league 25.6
Penalties0.21league 0.31
Home wins42%league 38%
Bologna5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W10 Nov 24A · AS Roma3–23
- W11 Feb 24H · Lecce4–01
- L14 Jan 24A · Cagliari1–22
- L27 Aug 22A · AC Milan0–21
- W7 Nov 21A · Sampdoria2–11
AC Milan6 with this referee
Record4-0-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- W27 Apr 25A · Venezia2–00
- L2 Mar 25H · Lazio1–23
- W14 Jan 25A · Como2–16
- W27 Aug 22H · Bologna2–02
- L28 Nov 21H · Sassuolo1–35
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bologna22 games · scored 32 · conceded 27
3
0-15
5
1
16-30
8
6
31-45
9
4
46-60
4
8
61-75
6
5
76-90
AC Milan22 games · scored 35 · conceded 17
4
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
7
2
31-45
9
3
46-60
5
4
61-75
8
2
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
3
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
6
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
