Bologna
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bologna35.3%fair odds 2.83
Draw28.4%fair odds 3.53
AC Milan36.3%fair odds 2.75
Expected goals1.24 – 1.26total 2.50
Likeliest score1–113.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
AC Milan
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bologna ↓ · AC Milan → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 13.5 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bologna goals, columns AC Milan goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%7.40
- 0–19.7%10.34
- 1–09.5%10.53
- 0–08.9%11.24
- 1–28.1%12.37
- 2–17.9%12.59
- 0–26.5%15.33
- 2–06.3%15.86
- 2–25.0%19.97
- 1–33.4%29.45
Winning margin
5.2%
Bologna by 3+
fair 19.21
10.3%
Bologna by 2
fair 9.71
19.8%
Bologna by 1
fair 5.05
28.4%
Draw
fair 3.53
20.2%
AC Milan by 1
fair 4.96
10.7%
AC Milan by 2
fair 9.38
5.5%
AC Milan by 3+
fair 18.13
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Bologna goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
AC Milan goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna win | 35.3% | 35.5% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 28.4% | 27.3% | +1.0 pp |
| AC Milan win | 36.3% | 37.1% | -0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.6% | 49.7% | -4.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.6% | 54.7% | -3.2 pp |
| Expected goals Bologna | 1.24 | 1.31 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals AC Milan | 1.26 | 1.35 | -0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bologna win35.3%2.83
- Draw28.4%3.53
- AC Milan win36.3%2.75
- Double chance Bologna or draw63.7%1.57
- Double chance Bologna or AC Milan71.6%1.40
- Double chance AC Milan or draw64.7%1.55
- Draw no bet Bologna49.3%2.03
- Draw no bet AC Milan50.7%1.97
Goals
- Over 0.591.1%1.10
- Over 1.571.9%1.39
- Over 2.545.6%2.19
- Over 3.524.2%4.13
- Over 4.510.9%9.20
- Under 1.528.1%3.56
- Under 2.554.4%1.84
- Under 3.575.8%1.32
Both teams to score
- Yes51.6%1.94
- No48.4%2.06
- Yes and over 2.538.1%2.63
- Bologna win and yes15.8%6.31
- Draw and yes19.5%5.14
- AC Milan win and yes16.3%6.15
Team goals
- Bologna over 0.571.0%1.41
- Bologna over 1.535.1%2.85
- Bologna over 2.512.9%7.75
- AC Milan over 0.571.6%1.40
- AC Milan over 1.535.9%2.79
- AC Milan over 2.513.4%7.47
- Bologna clean sheet28.4%3.53
- AC Milan clean sheet29.0%3.45
- Bologna win to nil19.5%5.14
- AC Milan win to nil20.1%4.98
Handicap
- Bologna −1.515.5%6.45
- Bologna −2.55.2%19.21
- AC Milan +1.584.5%1.18
- AC Milan +2.594.8%1.05
- AC Milan −1.516.2%6.18
- Bologna +1.583.8%1.19
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored229
Favourite won50.7%
Avg chance given to result40.7%
1X2 Brier0.600
Over 2.5 called right52.8%
BTTS called right50.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 33 | 37.8% | 39.4% |
| 40–50% | 76 | 44.8% | 46.1% |
| 50–60% | 55 | 54.7% | 43.6% |
| 60–70% | 41 | 64.9% | 68.3% |
| 70–80% | 17 | 73.3% | 64.7% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 82.8% | 71.4% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 208 of 229 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5960 | 0.5793 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 41.2% |
| Favourite won | 50.5% | 51.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 208 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 229 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.