Bologna
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bologna30.1%fair odds 3.32
Draw28.3%fair odds 3.53
AS Roma41.6%fair odds 2.41
Expected goals1.11 – 1.35total 2.47
Likeliest score1–113.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
AS Roma
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bologna ↓ · AS Roma → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 13.5 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bologna goals, columns AS Roma goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%7.43
- 0–110.8%9.24
- 0–09.2%10.90
- 1–08.8%11.40
- 1–28.7%11.56
- 0–27.8%12.86
- 2–17.1%14.06
- 2–05.3%19.02
- 2–24.8%20.78
- 1–33.9%25.63
Winning margin
3.7%
Bologna by 3+
fair 26.89
8.4%
Bologna by 2
fair 11.84
17.9%
Bologna by 1
fair 5.58
28.3%
Draw
fair 3.53
21.9%
AS Roma by 1
fair 4.56
12.5%
AS Roma by 2
fair 8.01
7.2%
AS Roma by 3+
fair 13.98
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
20%1
27%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
Bologna goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
AS Roma goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna win | 30.1% | 29.8% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 28.3% | 29.3% | -0.9 pp |
| AS Roma win | 41.6% | 40.9% | +0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.7% | 41.3% | +3.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.5% | 47.8% | +2.7 pp |
| Expected goals Bologna | 1.11 | 1.05 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals AS Roma | 1.35 | 1.28 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bologna win30.1%3.32
- Draw28.3%3.53
- AS Roma win41.6%2.41
- Double chance Bologna or draw58.4%1.71
- Double chance Bologna or AS Roma71.7%1.40
- Double chance AS Roma or draw69.9%1.43
- Draw no bet Bologna42.0%2.38
- Draw no bet AS Roma58.0%1.72
Goals
- Over 0.590.8%1.10
- Over 1.571.2%1.40
- Over 2.544.7%2.24
- Over 3.523.5%4.25
- Over 4.510.4%9.59
- Under 1.528.8%3.48
- Under 2.555.3%1.81
- Under 3.576.5%1.31
Both teams to score
- Yes50.5%1.98
- No49.5%2.02
- Yes and over 2.537.0%2.70
- Bologna win and yes13.4%7.46
- Draw and yes19.2%5.22
- AS Roma win and yes17.9%5.59
Team goals
- Bologna over 0.567.1%1.49
- Bologna over 1.530.6%3.27
- Bologna over 2.510.2%9.79
- AS Roma over 0.574.2%1.35
- AS Roma over 1.539.2%2.55
- AS Roma over 2.515.5%6.44
- Bologna clean sheet25.8%3.87
- AS Roma clean sheet32.9%3.04
- Bologna win to nil16.7%6.00
- AS Roma win to nil23.7%4.22
Handicap
- Bologna −1.512.2%8.22
- Bologna −2.53.7%26.89
- AS Roma +1.587.8%1.14
- AS Roma +2.596.3%1.04
- AS Roma −1.519.6%5.09
- Bologna +1.580.4%1.24
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.