Bologna vs AS Roma – 12 Mar 2026

UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Thu, Mar 12 · 17:45 Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna

Bologna

1–1Full time

AS Roma

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were slight favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 51). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AS Roma. Bologna had 4.2 days of rest, AS Roma 4 and had to travel 305 km.

Away travel305 kmRest days4.2 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 2

Bologna30%

Draw28%

AS Roma42%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.35

Bologna33%

Draw27%

AS Roma40%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.42

Bologna29%

Draw29%

AS Roma42%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.33

Bologna24%

Draw27%

AS Roma49%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.52

Bologna30%

Draw29%

AS Roma41%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.28

Over 2.5 45% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bologna)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanySven Jablonski

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 101

Team strength

Bologna

AS Roma

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

35 AttackIn forecast 72

48 DefenceIn forecast 75

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bologna

AS Roma

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

0.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.29

80% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.40 ShotsContext 12.50

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

29% On target shareContext 33%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.25

64% Box shareContext 74%

9% ConversionContext 14%

2.56 OffsidesContext 2.33

7.50 Shots allowedContext 8.50

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.78

2.33 BlocksContext 2.14

2.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

61% Save rateContext 73%

54% PossessionIn forecast 53%

414 PassesContext 454

339 Accurate passesContext 377

82% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.94

12.70 FoulsContext 13.40

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bologna

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km230 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AS Roma

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel305 km804 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bologna	AS Roma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Mar	4Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	305 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	230 km	804 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Ł. Skorupski(G)

33Juan Miranda 26J. Lucumí 16N. Casale 17João Mário

4T. Pobega 8R. Freuler 19L. Ferguson

11J. Rowe 9S. Castro 10F. Bernardeschi

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

99M. Svilar(G)

87D. Ghilardi 5O. Ndicka 19M. Çelik

43Wesley 61N. Pisilli 8N. El Aynaoui 2D. Rensch

4B. Cristante

14D. Malen 97Bryan Zaragoza

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bologna Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

AS Roma Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bologna+0.8 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
AS Roma-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Bologna · Home No home games yet this season.

AS Roma · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

4 Bologna wins3 draws2 AS Roma wins

Goals per game1.22 – 0.78 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets44% · 44%

23 Aug 2025AS Roma1–0Bologna
12 Jan 2025Bologna2–2AS Roma
10 Nov 2024AS Roma2–3Bologna
22 Apr 2024AS Roma1–3Bologna
17 Dec 2023Bologna2–0AS Roma
14 May 2023Bologna0–0AS Roma

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bologna	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.47
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	45%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	50%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Bologna	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.70
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	2.20	2.70	2.47
Over 1.5	50%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	45%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bologna	AS Roma
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Bologna	AS Roma
Corners
Corners won	4.67	4.50
Corners conceded	4.89	2.70
Match total	9.56	7.20
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	0% 0/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.70
Opponent cards	1.50	2.10
Match total	3.20	3.80
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 101 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.82

Red cards0.11

Cards 5+40%

Fouls20.2

Penalties0.18

Home wins42%

Bologna

No previous matches with this referee.

AS Roma

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.