Bologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were slight favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 53). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Bologna. Bologna had 4.3 days of rest, Aston Villa 18.2 and had to travel 1,316 km.
Away travel1,316 kmRest days4.3 · 18.2Matches / 14d1 · 0
Bologna24%
Draw26%
Aston Villa50%
Bologna24%
Draw26%
Aston Villa51%
Bologna25%
Draw26%
Aston Villa49%
Bologna19%
Draw24%
Aston Villa57%
Bologna24%
Draw27%
Aston Villa49%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bologna)
No weather data yet
RefereeSandro Schärer
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 39
Team strength
Bologna
Aston Villa
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
83
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
35
AttackIn forecast
83
48
DefenceIn forecast
78
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BolognaAston Villa
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.36
+0.97
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
12.50
ShotsContext
8.50
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.00
52%
On target shareContext
24%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
68%
Box shareContext
70%
20%
ConversionContext
18%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
16.00
Shots allowedContext
7.00
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
4.50
BlocksContext
1.50
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
57%
Save rateContext
100%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
428
PassesContext
467
324
Accurate passesContext
401
76%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.97
20.00
FoulsContext
9.50
19.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
4.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
90%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.00
ShotsContext
13.70
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
34%
On target shareContext
26%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
66%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.86
9.90
Shots allowedContext
11.20
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.89
BlocksContext
2.90
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
65%
Save rateContext
72%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
436
PassesContext
475
354
Accurate passesContext
407
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.60
FoulsContext
9.50
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bologna
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km252 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Aston Villa
Rest18.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,316 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bologna |
Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.3Serie A 2025-2026, 5 Apr | 18.2Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,316 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 252 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bologna
Confirmed XI
13F. Ravaglia(G)
33Juan Miranda
26J. Lucumí
14T. Heggem
17João Mário
4T. Pobega
8R. Freuler
19L. Ferguson
11J. Rowe
9S. Castro
10F. Bernardeschi
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
14Pau Torres
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
8Y. Tielemans
24A. Onana
10E. Buendía
27M. Rogers
7J. McGinn
11O. Watkins
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bologna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Aston Villa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bologna-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Aston Villa+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Bologna · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Aston Villa · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Bologna wins0 draws2 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 25 Sep 2025Aston Villa1–0Bologna
- 22 Oct 2024Aston Villa2–0Bologna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bologna | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 1.50 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Bologna | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 20% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bologna | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 7.50 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 4.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Bologna | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 11.00 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sandro Schärer 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.85league 4.76
Red cards0.23league 0.35
Cards 5+41%league 65%
Fouls22.9league 26.2
Penalties0.28league 0.24
Home wins38%league 47%
BolognaNo previous matches with this referee.
Aston VillaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bologna2 games · scored 5 · conceded 4
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Aston Villa2 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
