Bologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bologna were clear favourites.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 23). Absences weigh more on Brann. Bologna had 4.1 days of rest, Brann 14.1 and had to travel 1,812 km.
Away travel1,812 kmRest days4.1 · 14.1Matches / 14d3 · 0
Bologna70%
Draw19%
Brann12%
Bologna67%
Draw20%
Brann13%
Bologna69%
Draw19%
Brann12%
Bologna62%
Draw21%
Brann16%
Bologna68%
Draw20%
Brann12%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bologna)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Schlager
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 80
Team strength
Bologna
Brann
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
35
AttackIn forecast
21
48
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBrann
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BolognaBrann
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
67%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
15.67
ShotsContext
12.00
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
36%
On target shareContext
31%
9.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
61%
Box shareContext
74%
6%
ConversionContext
14%
4.00
OffsidesContext
—
11.00
Shots allowedContext
10.33
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
2.50
BlocksContext
3.50
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
75%
Save rateContext
71%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
397
PassesContext
414
325
Accurate passesContext
324
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.92
16.33
FoulsContext
12.00
16.33
Fouls sufferedContext
8.67
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.80
ShotsContext
11.43
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.86
36%
On target shareContext
43%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
61%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
3.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.80
Shots allowedContext
11.57
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.71
BlocksContext
2.83
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
74%
Save rateContext
67%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
443
PassesContext
448
373
Accurate passesContext
358
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.81
14.40
FoulsContext
12.29
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.86
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bologna
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km334 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Brann
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,812 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bologna |
Brann |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Serie A 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 14.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,812 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 334 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 20.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bologna
Confirmed XI
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
22C. Lykogiannis
26J. Lucumí
14T. Heggem
2E. Holm
19L. Ferguson
6N. Moro
28N. Cambiaghi
80G. Fabbian
10F. Bernardeschi
9S. Castro
Brann
Confirmed XI
1M. Dyngeland(G)
20V. Dragsnes
6J. Sery Larsen
26E. Helland
21D. De Roeve
19E. Guðmundsson
18J. Sørensen
10E. Kornvig
14U. Mathisen
32M. Haaland
11B. Finne
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bologna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Brann
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bologna+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Brann-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Bologna · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Brann · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Bologna | Brann | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.33 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Bologna | Brann | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.33 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 67% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bologna | Brann | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 11.67 | 9.34 | 9.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 5.67 | 3.34 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Bologna | Brann | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.29 | 9.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.80 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Schlager Germany · 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 4.02
Red cards0.24league 0.16
Cards 5+50%league 40%
Fouls22.7league 24.9
Penalties0.29league 0.43
Home wins56%league 48%
BolognaNo previous matches with this referee.
BrannNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bologna3 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
76-90
Brann3 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
2
3
0-15
4
16-30
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Brann10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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