Bologna vs Celtic – 22 Jan 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 7 Thu, Jan 22 · 17:45 Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna

Bologna 12th · 11 pts · 6 played DWDWW

2–2Full time

Celtic 24th · 7 pts · 6 played LWLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bologna were slight favourites.

Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 46). Bologna had 4.2 days of rest, Celtic 41.9 and had to travel 1,675 km.

Away travel1,675 kmRest days4.2 · 41.9Matches / 14d3 · 0

Bologna49%

Draw25%

Celtic27%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.25

Bologna49%

Draw26%

Celtic25%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.10

Bologna49%

Draw25%

Celtic26%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.21

Bologna41%

Draw25%

Celtic33%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.40

Bologna49%

Draw26%

Celtic26%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.13

Over 2.5 58% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bologna)

No weather data yet

RefereeVassilis Fotias

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 41

Team strength

Bologna

Celtic

55 L90 StrengthIn forecast 46

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 52

35 AttackIn forecast 74

48 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celtic

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bologna

Celtic

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83

1.72 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

-0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.44

67% Scored inContext 67%

17% Clean sheetsContext 0%

17.67 ShotsContext 9.33

6.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

35% On target shareContext 43%

12.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.17

68% Box shareContext 71%

9% ConversionContext 13%

2.83 OffsidesContext 1.80

8.67 Shots allowedContext 14.00

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.17

2.20 BlocksContext 3.80

3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20

75% Save rateContext 70%

53% PossessionIn forecast 54%

413 PassesContext 501

343 Accurate passesContext 426

83% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.77

13.00 FoulsContext 11.83

13.67 Fouls sufferedContext 11.17

2.17 Yellow cardsContext 1.83

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.24 xGVia Att/Def —

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext —

80% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.60 ShotsContext 15.80

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

29% On target shareContext 32%

9.22 Shots in the boxContext 10.70

64% Box shareContext 69%

8% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.38

11.40 Shots allowedContext 9.50

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

3.25 BlocksContext 3.33

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

68% Save rateContext 63%

54% PossessionIn forecast 67%

433 PassesContext 622

357 Accurate passesContext 548

82% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.96

13.50 FoulsContext 9.90

14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.20

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bologna

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km676 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Celtic

Rest41.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel1,675 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bologna	Celtic
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Jan	41.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,675 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	676 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Ł. Skorupski(G)

33Juan Miranda 14T. Heggem 16N. Casale 20N. Zortea

4T. Pobega 6N. Moro 19L. Ferguson

30B. Domínguez 24T. Dallinga 11J. Rowe

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Celtic Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1K. Schmeichel(G)

63K. Tierney 5L. Scales 6A. Trusty 51C. Donovan

42C. McGregor 27A. Engels

23S. Tounekti 41R. Hatate 13H. Yang

38D. Maeda

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bologna Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Celtic Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bologna-0.5 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Celtic+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Bologna · Home 1.67points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-0
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 0.67

Celtic · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Bologna	Celtic	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.17
Conceded per game	0.83	1.83
Match goals	2.33	3.00	3.02
Over 1.5	67%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	67%	58%
Over 3.5	17%	33%
Both teams scored	67%	67%	60%
Clean sheets	17%	0%
Failed to score	33%	33%
Games	6	6

	Bologna	Celtic	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.17
Conceded per game	1.70	1.83
Match goals	2.80	3.00	3.02
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	67%	58%
Over 3.5	30%	33%
Both teams scored	80%	67%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	20%	33%
Games	10	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bologna	Celtic	League
Corners
Corners won	6.40	5.00
Corners conceded	5.00	4.83
Match total	11.40	9.83	8.96
Over 8.5	80% 4/5	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	80% 4/5	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	60% 3/5	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	2.33	1.83
Opponent cards	2.50	1.83
Match total	4.83	3.66	4.32
Over 3.5	83% 5/6	50% 3/6
Over 4.5	33% 2/6	17% 1/6

	Bologna	Celtic	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	5.44
Corners conceded	4.89	4.11
Match total	9.33	9.55	8.96
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.20
Opponent cards	2.10	1.70
Match total	4.30	2.90	4.32
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Vassilis Fotias 41 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.66league 4.09

Red cards0.22league 0.20

Cards 5+51%league 42%

Fouls25.7league 24.4

Penalties0.37league 0.35

Home wins49%league 50%

Bologna

No previous matches with this referee.

Celtic

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.