Bologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bologna were clear favourites.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 20). Absences weigh more on Bologna. Bologna had 4 days of rest, Cremonese 8.2 and had to travel 126 km.
Away travel126 kmRest days4 · 8.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Bologna70%
Draw19%
Cremonese11%
Bologna72%
Draw18%
Cremonese10%
Bologna71%
Draw19%
Cremonese10%
Bologna63%
Draw22%
Cremonese14%
Bologna71%
Draw18%
Cremonese11%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bologna)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyErmanno Feliciani
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 32
Team strength
Bologna
Cremonese
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
35
AttackIn forecast
16
48
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BolognaCremonese
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.08
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
75%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.50
ShotsContext
7.92
4.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.17
31%
On target shareContext
40%
7.92
Shots in the boxContext
4.82
62%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.44
9.25
Shots allowedContext
15.33
2.82
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.17
2.90
BlocksContext
4.36
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.18
77%
Save rateContext
75%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
420
PassesContext
376
349
Accurate passesContext
297
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.83
FoulsContext
11.83
14.42
Fouls sufferedContext
12.58
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
0.68
0.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
80%
Scored inContext
70%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.70
ShotsContext
8.00
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
35%
On target shareContext
36%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
4.50
63%
Box shareContext
55%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.63
7.90
Shots allowedContext
15.30
3.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.71
BlocksContext
4.33
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.22
80%
Save rateContext
76%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
424
PassesContext
383
355
Accurate passesContext
301
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.69
13.40
FoulsContext
11.60
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bologna
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km459 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cremonese
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel126 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bologna |
Cremonese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov | 8.2Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 126 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 459 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bologna
Confirmed XI
13F. Ravaglia(G)
33Juan Miranda
26J. Lucumí
16N. Casale
20N. Zortea
6N. Moro
4T. Pobega
30B. Domínguez
21J. Odgaard
7R. Orsolini
9S. Castro
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
15M. Bianchetti
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
38W. Bondo
3G. Pezzella
27J. Vandeputte
32M. Payero
4T. Barbieri
10J. Vardy
90F. Bonazzoli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bologna
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cremonese
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bologna-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Cremonese+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Bologna · Home
2.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-0
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 0.20
Cremonese · Away
1.33points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Bologna | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Parma | W 3–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Pisa | W 4–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Genoa | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Como | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Points | 15 of 21 · 2.14 per game | 9 of 21 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Bologna wins1 draws0 Cremonese wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 20 May 2023Cremonese1–5Bologna
- 23 Jan 2023Bologna1–1Cremonese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bologna | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.42 | 2.42 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 42% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Bologna | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.10 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bologna | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.08 | 2.92 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.42 | 5.92 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 8.84 | 8.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 7/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 5/12 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 4/12 | 17% 2/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 4.17 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 9/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 7/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Bologna | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 2.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.30 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 8.80 | 8.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.10 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ermanno Feliciani Italy · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.09league 3.93
Red cards0.03league 0.13
Cards 5+16%league 39%
Fouls22.8league 26.0
Penalties0.22league 0.31
Home wins56%league 38%
Bologna1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Apr 24H · Salernitana3–00
Cremonese1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L4 Oct 25A · Inter1–41
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bologna12 games · scored 21 · conceded 8
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Cremonese12 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
5
1
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 22 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
7
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
