Bologna vs Lecce – 12 Apr 2026

Serie A Gameweek 32 Sun, Apr 12 · 17:00 Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna

Bologna 8th · 45 pts · 31 played WLWLW

2–0Full time

Lecce 18th · 27 pts · 31 played LWLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bologna were slight favourites.

Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lecce. Bologna had 2.9 days of rest, Lecce 6.1 and had to travel 725 km.

Away travel725 kmRest days2.9 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 1

Bologna55%

Draw27%

Lecce18%

Expected goals 1.55 – 0.78

Bologna63%

Draw22%

Lecce15%

Expected goals 2.01 – 0.89

Bologna55%

Draw27%

Lecce18%

Expected goals 1.52 – 0.76

Bologna48%

Draw29%

Lecce23%

Expected goals 1.39 – 0.87

Bologna56%

Draw25%

Lecce19%

Expected goals 1.69 – 0.87

Over 2.5 41% Both score 43% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bologna)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 69

Team strength

Bologna

Lecce

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

35 AttackIn forecast 36

48 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bologna

Lecce

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.68

1.19 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.39

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 0.75

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

74% Scored inContext 48%

29% Clean sheetsContext 26%

12.97 ShotsContext 9.61

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.59

29% On target shareContext 24%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 5.53

62% Box shareContext 55%

10% ConversionContext 7%

2.36 OffsidesContext 1.65

9.97 Shots allowedContext 12.81

3.87 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.48

2.89 BlocksContext 3.52

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

68% Save rateContext 67%

55% PossessionIn forecast 42%

433 PassesContext 322

360 Accurate passesContext 243

83% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.72

12.81 FoulsContext 12.32

14.10 Fouls sufferedContext 14.06

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.58

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 0.82

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

90% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.50 ShotsContext 10.30

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.88

32% On target shareContext 22%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 5.80

63% Box shareContext 54%

10% ConversionContext 8%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.33

10.20 Shots allowedContext 12.40

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

2.89 BlocksContext 3.10

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

60% Save rateContext 60%

55% PossessionIn forecast 40%

456 PassesContext 304

378 Accurate passesContext 226

83% Pass accuracyContext 74%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.75

13.40 FoulsContext 12.20

14.40 Fouls sufferedContext 14.60

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bologna

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km252 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lecce

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel725 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bologna	Lecce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 9 Apr	6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	725 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	252 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	8.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25M. Pessina(G)

33Juan Miranda 26J. Lucumí 16N. Casale 17João Mário

6N. Moro 8R. Freuler

28N. Cambiaghi 23S. Sohm 7R. Orsolini

9S. Castro

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30W. Falcone(G)

3C. Ndaba 44Tiago Gabriel 5J. Siebert 17Danilo Veiga

29L. Coulibaly 20Y. Ramadani 79Oumar Ngom

19L. Banda 9N. Štulić 50S. Pierotti

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bologna Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lecce Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bologna+0.4 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Lecce-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Bologna · Home 1.13points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 5-2-8
Scored: 0.93
Conceded: 1.20

Lecce · Away 0.73points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-10
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Bologna	Lecce
Cremonese	W 2–1 AL 1–3 H	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A
Lazio	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A
Sassuolo	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H	D 0–0 H
Verona	L 1–2 HW 3–2 A	D 0–0 H
Pisa	W 1–0 AW 4–0 H	W 1–0 H
Udinese	W 1–0 HW 3–0 A	W 2–1 HL 2–3 A
Torino	W 2–1 AD 0–0 H	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H
Parma	L 0–1 HW 3–1 A	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
AC Milan	L 0–3 HL 0–1 A	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H
Genoa	L 2–3 AW 2–1 H	D 0–0 A
Fiorentina	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A	W 1–0 A
Como	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	L 1–3 AL 0–3 H
Atalanta	L 0–2 H	L 0–3 HL 1–4 A
Inter	L 1–3 A	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A
Juventus	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Napoli	W 2–0 H	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H
Cagliari	W 2–0 A	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H
AS Roma	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H
Points	44 of 90 · 1.47 per game	26 of 90 · 0.87 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

4 Bologna wins3 draws0 Lecce wins

Goals per game1.86 – 0.71 Over 2.543% Both scored43% Clean sheets57% · 14%

28 Sep 2025Lecce2–2Bologna
9 Feb 2025Lecce0–0Bologna
2 Nov 2024Bologna1–0Lecce
11 Feb 2024Bologna4–0Lecce
3 Dec 2023Lecce1–1Bologna
4 Jun 2023Lecce2–3Bologna

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bologna	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	0.68
Conceded per game	1.19	1.39
Match goals	2.48	2.06	2.33
Over 1.5	71%	61%
Over 2.5	48%	39%	41%
Over 3.5	26%	13%
Both teams scored	48%	35%	43%
Clean sheets	29%	26%
Failed to score	26%	52%
Games	31	31

	Bologna	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	0.80
Conceded per game	1.20	1.40
Match goals	2.50	2.20	2.33
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	41%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	43%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	10%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bologna	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	4.20
Corners conceded	4.20	5.53
Match total	8.50	9.73	8.65
Over 8.5	47% 14/30	73% 22/30
Over 9.5	37% 11/30	60% 18/30
Over 10.5	30% 9/30	43% 13/30
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.65
Opponent cards	2.13	1.52
Match total	4.23	3.17	3.89
Over 3.5	58% 18/31	42% 13/31
Over 4.5	48% 15/31	23% 7/31

	Bologna	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	3.44
Corners conceded	4.10	5.56
Match total	9.00	9.00	8.65
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.10
Opponent cards	1.60	1.30
Match total	4.00	2.40	3.89
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 69 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.80league 3.71

Red cards0.17league 0.20

Cards 5+55%league 35%

Fouls24.8league 24.9

Penalties0.16league 0.30

Home wins38%league 40%

Bologna5 with this referee

Record3-1-1 Cards · opp.3.2 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

W20 Apr 25H · Inter1–03
W16 Mar 25H · Lazio5–02
D5 Jan 24H · Genoa1–13
W27 Nov 23H · Torino2–03
L9 Nov 22A · Inter1–65

Lecce4 with this referee

Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

D15 Sep 24A · Torino0–03
D11 Dec 23A · Empoli1–12
L5 Nov 23A · AS Roma1–25
L20 Aug 22A · Sassuolo0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.