Bologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were slight favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 58). Bologna come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Bologna had 2.8 days of rest, Napoli 7.9 and had to travel 470 km.
Away travel470 kmRest days2.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d4 · 2
Bologna32%
Draw28%
Napoli41%
Bologna35%
Draw27%
Napoli38%
Bologna32%
Draw28%
Napoli41%
Bologna26%
Draw26%
Napoli48%
Bologna35%
Draw27%
Napoli38%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bologna)
No weather data yet
RefereeDaniele Chiffi
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 68
Team strength
Bologna
Napoli
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
61
35
AttackIn forecast
61
48
DefenceIn forecast
70
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BolognaNapoli
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.10
ShotsContext
14.90
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
31%
On target shareContext
37%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
61%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.56
OffsidesContext
1.60
9.50
Shots allowedContext
11.10
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
3.13
BlocksContext
3.20
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.89
73%
Save rateContext
71%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
437
PassesContext
527
367
Accurate passesContext
459
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.90
13.60
FoulsContext
13.20
13.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
70%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.90
ShotsContext
14.20
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
34%
On target shareContext
30%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
60%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
3.11
OffsidesContext
1.14
9.00
Shots allowedContext
10.70
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
3.14
BlocksContext
3.10
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
73%
Save rateContext
65%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
445
PassesContext
516
378
Accurate passesContext
450
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.80
FoulsContext
12.10
13.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bologna
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km334 km in 14d
Schedule load43%High
Napoli
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel470 km668 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bologna |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 43 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov | 7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 470 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 334 km | 668 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 4 / 6 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 13.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bologna
Confirmed XI
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
33Juan Miranda
26J. Lucumí
14T. Heggem
2E. Holm
4T. Pobega
19L. Ferguson
11J. Rowe
21J. Odgaard
7R. Orsolini
24T. Dallinga
Napoli
Confirmed XI
32V. Milinković-Savić(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez
4A. Buongiorno
13A. Rrahmani
22G. Di Lorenzo
8S. McTominay
68S. Lobotka
99F. Anguissa
20E. Elmas
19R. Højlund
21M. Politano
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bologna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Napoli
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bologna+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Napoli+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Bologna · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.25
Napoli · Away
1.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 0.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Bologna | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Torino | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 A |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Pisa | W 4–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Lecce | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Genoa | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Como | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 15 of 24 · 1.88 per game | 16 of 24 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Bologna wins3 draws4 Napoli wins
Goals per game0.88 – 1.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 7 Apr 2025Bologna1–1Napoli
- 25 Aug 2024Napoli3–0Bologna
- 11 May 2024Napoli0–2Bologna
- 24 Sep 2023Bologna0–0Napoli
- 28 May 2023Bologna2–2Napoli
- 16 Oct 2022Napoli3–2Bologna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bologna | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Bologna | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bologna | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 3.22 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 8.33 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 3.10 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Bologna | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 8.60 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 3.30 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Chiffi 68 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 3.88
Red cards0.24league 0.12
Cards 5+40%league 39%
Fouls22.6league 25.8
Penalties0.19league 0.29
Home wins43%league 36%
Bologna2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Feb 24H · Fiorentina2–02
- L21 Nov 21H · Venezia0–10
Napoli4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 0
- L28 Sep 25A · AC Milan1–20
- W25 Jan 25H · Juventus2–12
- W28 Feb 24A · Sassuolo6–10
- W21 Jan 23A · Salernitana2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bologna10 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
2
3
0-15
4
16-30
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
1
0-15
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
