Bologna
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bologna31.9%fair odds 3.14
Draw27.5%fair odds 3.63
Napoli40.6%fair odds 2.46
Expected goals1.21 – 1.40total 2.61
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Napoli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bologna ↓ · Napoli → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 13.1 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bologna goals, columns Napoli goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.62
- 0–19.6%10.39
- 1–28.7%11.48
- 1–08.3%12.12
- 0–08.0%12.48
- 2–17.5%13.25
- 0–27.2%13.91
- 2–05.4%18.52
- 2–25.3%18.95
- 1–34.1%24.63
Winning margin
4.5%
Bologna by 3+
fair 22.45
9.2%
Bologna by 2
fair 10.90
18.3%
Bologna by 1
fair 5.48
27.5%
Draw
fair 3.63
21.2%
Napoli by 1
fair 4.72
12.2%
Napoli by 2
fair 8.19
7.2%
Napoli by 3+
fair 13.86
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Bologna goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
Napoli goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna win | 31.9% | 35.4% | -3.5 pp |
| Draw | 27.5% | 27.0% | +0.5 pp |
| Napoli win | 40.6% | 37.6% | +3.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.4% | 51.0% | -2.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.5% | 55.8% | -2.2 pp |
| Expected goals Bologna | 1.21 | 1.33 | -0.12 |
| Expected goals Napoli | 1.40 | 1.38 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bologna win31.9%3.14
- Draw27.5%3.63
- Napoli win40.6%2.46
- Double chance Bologna or draw59.4%1.68
- Double chance Bologna or Napoli72.5%1.38
- Double chance Napoli or draw68.1%1.47
- Draw no bet Bologna44.0%2.27
- Draw no bet Napoli56.0%1.79
Goals
- Over 0.592.0%1.09
- Over 1.574.1%1.35
- Over 2.548.4%2.07
- Over 3.526.6%3.76
- Over 4.512.4%8.07
- Under 1.525.9%3.86
- Under 2.551.6%1.94
- Under 3.573.4%1.36
Both teams to score
- Yes53.5%1.87
- No46.5%2.15
- Yes and over 2.540.4%2.47
- Bologna win and yes15.2%6.58
- Draw and yes19.5%5.13
- Napoli win and yes18.8%5.31
Team goals
- Bologna over 0.570.2%1.42
- Bologna over 1.534.2%2.93
- Bologna over 2.512.3%8.13
- Napoli over 0.575.3%1.33
- Napoli over 1.540.8%2.45
- Napoli over 2.516.6%6.02
- Bologna clean sheet24.7%4.05
- Napoli clean sheet29.8%3.36
- Bologna win to nil16.7%5.99
- Napoli win to nil21.8%4.60
Handicap
- Bologna −1.513.6%7.34
- Bologna −2.54.5%22.45
- Napoli +1.586.4%1.16
- Napoli +2.595.5%1.05
- Napoli −1.519.4%5.15
- Bologna +1.580.6%1.24
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored106
Favourite won46.2%
Avg chance given to result38.9%
1X2 Brier0.639
Over 2.5 called right59.4%
BTTS called right47.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 16 | 37.8% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 34 | 44.4% | 38.2% |
| 50–60% | 25 | 54.2% | 32.0% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 63.8% | 64.7% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 73.0% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 81.9% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 85 of 106 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6379 | 0.6173 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.5% | 39.1% |
| Favourite won | 44.7% | 44.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 85 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 106 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.