Bologna vs SC Freiburg – 2 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 2 · 17:45 Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna

Bologna 28th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–1Full time

SC Freiburg 4th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bologna were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Bologna had 4 days of rest, SC Freiburg 4.1 and had to travel 473 km.

Away travel473 kmRest days4 · 4.1Matches / 14d3 · 3

Bologna44%

Draw26%

SC Freiburg30%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.25

Bologna43%

Draw27%

SC Freiburg30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Bologna44%

Draw26%

SC Freiburg30%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.24

Bologna37%

Draw27%

SC Freiburg37%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.40

Bologna43%

Draw27%

SC Freiburg30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.21

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bologna)

No weather data yet

Referee · SerbiaNenad Minaković

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 16

Team strength

Bologna

SC Freiburg

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 55

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 64

35 AttackIn forecast 63

48 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

SC Freiburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bologna

SC Freiburg

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.31

70% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.20 ShotsContext 11.10

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

30% On target shareContext 31%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.13

60% Box shareContext 69%

8% ConversionContext 15%

3.30 OffsidesContext 2.86

9.60 Shots allowedContext 11.40

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

2.88 BlocksContext 3.89

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

63% Save rateContext 61%

56% PossessionIn forecast 49%

418 PassesContext 382

347 Accurate passesContext 303

83% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.85

13.00 FoulsContext 9.90

16.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.20

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bologna

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km4,082 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

SC Freiburg

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel473 km1,138 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bologna	SC Freiburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Sep	4.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	473 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,082 km	1,138 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Ł. Skorupski(G)

22C. Lykogiannis 26J. Lucumí 41M. Vitík 2E. Holm

19L. Ferguson 8R. Freuler

28N. Cambiaghi 21J. Odgaard 7R. Orsolini

9S. Castro

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

SC Freiburg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1N. Atubolu(G)

33J. Makengo 3P. Lienhart 28M. Ginter 29P. Treu

6P. Osterhage 8M. Eggestein

32V. Grifo 44J. Manzambi 19J. Beste

20C. Adamu

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bologna Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

SC Freiburg Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bologna+0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
SC Freiburg+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Bologna · Home No home games yet this season.

SC Freiburg · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Bologna	SC Freiburg	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	3.00	2.82
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	54%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Bologna	SC Freiburg	Forecast
Scored per game	0.83	1.83
Conceded per game	1.00	1.67
Match goals	1.83	3.50	2.82
Over 1.5	33%	100%
Over 2.5	33%	83%	54%
Over 3.5	17%	50%
Both teams scored	33%	83%	57%
Clean sheets	17%	17%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	6	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bologna	SC Freiburg	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	4.00
Corners conceded	8.00	4.00
Match total	11.00	8.00	9.28
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	4.00	4.00	4.50
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Bologna	SC Freiburg	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	4.56
Corners conceded	3.40	3.78
Match total	10.00	8.34	9.28
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.70
Opponent cards	3.00	2.70
Match total	5.20	4.40	4.50
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Nenad Minaković Serbia · 16 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.25league 4.39

Red cards0.13league 0.11

Cards 5+44%league 56%

Fouls25.7league 26.3

Penalties0.25league 0.22

Home wins63%league 39%

Bologna

No previous matches with this referee.

SC Freiburg

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.