Bologna vs Verona – 8 Mar 2026

Serie A Gameweek 28 Sun, Mar 8 · 14:00 Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna

Bologna 8th · 39 pts · 27 played LLWWW

1–2Full time

Verona 19th · 15 pts · 27 played LDLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bologna were clear favourites.

Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 17). Bologna usually keep the ball (54% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Bologna had 5.9 days of rest, Verona 7.9 and had to travel 108 km.

Away travel108 kmRest days5.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d3 · 1

Bologna64%

Draw24%

Verona12%

Expected goals 1.72 – 0.60

Bologna69%

Draw19%

Verona12%

Expected goals 2.23 – 0.80

Bologna63%

Draw25%

Verona12%

Expected goals 1.67 – 0.58

Bologna57%

Draw27%

Verona16%

Expected goals 1.53 – 0.67

Bologna66%

Draw22%

Verona12%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.67

Over 2.5 41% Both score 38% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bologna)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyGiuseppe Mucera

Cards per match 3.0
Penalties per match 1.00
Matches 1

Team strength

Bologna

Verona

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

35 AttackIn forecast 15

48 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bologna

Verona

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.74

1.19 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.78

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

74% Scored inContext 52%

30% Clean sheetsContext 19%

12.67 ShotsContext 10.44

3.92 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.81

30% On target shareContext 35%

8.12 Shots in the boxContext 6.11

62% Box shareContext 57%

11% ConversionContext 7%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.19

9.89 Shots allowedContext 13.30

3.81 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.62

3.00 BlocksContext 4.07

2.79 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.85

69% Save rateContext 62%

55% PossessionIn forecast 41%

424 PassesContext 330

350 Accurate passesContext 248

83% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.63

13.15 FoulsContext 15.19

14.11 Fouls sufferedContext 9.07

1.93 Yellow cardsContext 2.19

0.15 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 0.73

0.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

80% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.10 ShotsContext 8.80

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.89

31% On target shareContext 30%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.00

66% Box shareContext 54%

9% ConversionContext 8%

2.67 OffsidesContext 2.14

6.80 Shots allowedContext 13.30

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

2.25 BlocksContext 3.60

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

65% Save rateContext 57%

54% PossessionIn forecast 41%

418 PassesContext 358

345 Accurate passesContext 276

82% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.61

13.00 FoulsContext 12.40

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bologna

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km230 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Verona

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel108 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bologna	Verona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 2 Mar	7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	108 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	230 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1Ł. Skorupski(G)

17João Mário 26J. Lucumí 41M. Vitík 20N. Zortea

19L. Ferguson

11J. Rowe 21J. Odgaard 6N. Moro 7R. Orsolini

9S. Castro

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Verona Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1L. Montipò(G)

12D. Bradarić 3M. Frese 5A. Edmundsson 15V. Nelsson 2D. Oyegoke

21A. Harroui 63R. Gagliardini 11J. Akpa Akpro

16G. Orban 18K. Bowie

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bologna Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Verona Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bologna+0.6 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Verona+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Bologna · Home 1.31points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 5-2-6
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.08

Verona · Away 0.57points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 1-5-8
Scored: 0.57
Conceded: 1.93

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Bologna	Verona
Pisa	W 1–0 AW 4–0 H	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A
Udinese	W 1–0 HW 3–0 A	L 1–3 HD 1–1 A
Torino	W 2–1 AD 0–0 H	L 0–3 H
Parma	L 0–1 HW 3–1 A	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
AC Milan	L 0–3 HL 0–1 A	L 0–3 A
Genoa	L 2–3 AW 2–1 H	L 1–2 A
Fiorentina	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A	W 2–1 A
Como	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	L 1–3 A
Atalanta	L 0–2 H	W 3–1 H
Inter	L 1–3 A	L 1–2 H
Sassuolo	D 1–1 H	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H
Juventus	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 H
Lazio	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A
Cremonese	L 1–3 H	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H
Napoli	W 2–0 H	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A
Cagliari	W 2–0 A	L 0–4 AD 2–2 H
Lecce	D 2–2 A	D 0–0 A
AS Roma	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 A
Points	36 of 78 · 1.38 per game	15 of 78 · 0.58 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

4 Bologna wins2 draws3 Verona wins

Goals per game1.44 – 1.22 Over 2.556% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 11%

15 Jan 2026Verona2–3Bologna
9 Mar 2025Verona1–2Bologna
30 Dec 2024Bologna2–3Verona
23 Feb 2024Bologna2–0Verona
18 Sep 2023Verona0–0Bologna
21 Apr 2023Verona2–1Bologna

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bologna	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	0.74
Conceded per game	1.19	1.78
Match goals	2.52	2.52	2.32
Over 1.5	70%	74%
Over 2.5	48%	63%	41%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	48%	52%	38%
Clean sheets	30%	19%
Failed to score	26%	48%
Games	27	27

	Bologna	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	0.70
Conceded per game	1.00	2.00
Match goals	2.30	2.70	2.32
Over 1.5	50%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	41%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	38%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bologna	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	4.42	3.69
Corners conceded	4.35	4.81
Match total	8.77	8.50	8.78
Over 8.5	50% 13/26	58% 15/26
Over 9.5	38% 10/26	35% 9/26
Over 10.5	31% 8/26	23% 6/26
Cards
Cards	2.11	2.30
Opponent cards	2.19	1.74
Match total	4.30	4.04	3.93
Over 3.5	63% 17/27	52% 14/27
Over 4.5	52% 14/27	41% 11/27

	Bologna	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.89	3.56
Corners conceded	4.78	4.89
Match total	10.67	8.45	8.78
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.00
Opponent cards	1.60	1.70
Match total	3.30	3.70	3.93
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Giuseppe Mucera Italy · 1 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.00league 3.76

Red cards0.00league 0.19

Cards 5+0%league 36%

Fouls27.0league 25.2

Penalties1.00league 0.31

Home wins100%league 39%

Bologna

No previous matches with this referee.

Verona

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.