Borussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Dortmund
3rd · 29 pts · 14 played
DDWWD
2–0Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
11th · 16 pts · 14 played
WWDWL
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 44). Absences weigh more on Borussia Dortmund. Borussia Dortmund had 5.2 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 6.2 and had to travel 80 km.
Away travel80 kmRest days5.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Borussia Dortmund71%
Draw18%
Borussia Mönchengladbach11%
Borussia Dortmund70%
Draw19%
Borussia Mönchengladbach11%
Borussia Dortmund72%
Draw17%
Borussia Mönchengladbach11%
Borussia Dortmund64%
Draw21%
Borussia Mönchengladbach16%
Borussia Dortmund69%
Draw19%
Borussia Mönchengladbach12%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySven Jablonski
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 93
Team strength
Borussia DortmundBorussia Mönchengladbach
82
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
69
AttackIn forecast
34
80
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia DortmundBorussia Mönchengladbach
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
100%
Scored inContext
57%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
11.93
ShotsContext
11.71
4.36
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.77
37%
On target shareContext
38%
8.21
Shots in the boxContext
8.62
71%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.58
10.64
Shots allowedContext
13.86
3.46
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.93
2.77
BlocksContext
3.57
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
77%
Save rateContext
64%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
486
PassesContext
426
411
Accurate passesContext
356
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.71
FoulsContext
10.00
10.43
Fouls sufferedContext
9.86
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.36
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
100%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.30
ShotsContext
10.10
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
37%
On target shareContext
43%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
72%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
17%
—
OffsidesContext
2.56
11.30
Shots allowedContext
14.80
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.11
BlocksContext
4.00
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
76%
Save rateContext
63%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
471
PassesContext
407
397
Accurate passesContext
335
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.50
FoulsContext
9.20
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Dortmund
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km785 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel80 km373 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Dortmund |
Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 80 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 785 km | 373 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 22.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
23E. Can
25N. Süle
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
13P. Groß
26J. Ryerson
10J. Brandt
27K. Adeyemi
9S. Guirassy
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
4K. Diks
30N. Elvedi
16P. Sander
20L. Netz
6Y. Engelhardt
27R. Reitz
29J. Scally
10F. Neuhaus
13G. Reyna
15H. Tabaković
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Dortmund-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Dortmund · Home
2.33points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-0
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 0.67
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away
1.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Dortmund | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 3–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| RB Leipzig | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 3–3 A | W 4–0 A |
| Points | 23 of 36 · 1.92 per game | 16 of 36 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Borussia Dortmund wins1 draws2 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
Goals per game2.88 – 1.63
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 13%
- 20 Apr 2025Borussia Dortmund3–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 7 Dec 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach1–1Borussia Dortmund
- 13 Apr 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach1–2Borussia Dortmund
- 25 Nov 2023Borussia Dortmund4–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 13 May 2023Borussia Dortmund5–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 11 Nov 2022Borussia Mönchengladbach4–2Borussia Dortmund
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Dortmund | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.86 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 57% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 36% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 43% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Borussia Dortmund | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.30 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Dortmund | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.08 | 4.92 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.62 | 5.54 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 10.46 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 7/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 6/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 4/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.36 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 3.79 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 9/14 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 6/14 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 9.89 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 93 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.91league 3.91
Red cards0.11league 0.21
Cards 5+42%league 41%
Fouls20.1league 21.2
Penalties0.18league 0.33
Home wins41%league 47%
Borussia Dortmund9 with this referee
Record5-1-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- D30 Nov 24H · Bayern München1–12
- L9 Dec 23H · RB Leipzig2–32
- W25 Nov 23H · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–21
- W23 Sep 23H · VfL Wolfsburg1–00
- W3 Mar 23H · RB Leipzig2–12
Borussia Mönchengladbach11 with this referee
Record4-4-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 3
- L30 Aug 25A · VfB Stuttgart0–11
- L10 May 25A · Bayern München0–21
- W15 Feb 25A · Union Berlin2–11
- W24 Feb 24H · VfL Bochum5–22
- L25 Nov 23A · Borussia Dortmund2–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Dortmund14 games · scored 24 · conceded 12
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
11
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach14 games · scored 18 · conceded 22
1
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
6
5
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
0-15
1
2
16-30
7
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
