Borussia Dortmund
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Borussia Dortmund
3rd · 29 pts · 14 played
DDWWD
2–0Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
11th · 16 pts · 14 played
WWDWL
Borussia Dortmund70.9%fair odds 1.41
Draw17.7%fair odds 5.66
Borussia Mönchengladbach11.4%fair odds 8.77
Expected goals2.43 – 0.89total 3.31
Likeliest score2–010.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Borussia Dortmund ↓ · Borussia Mönchengladbach → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Borussia Dortmund goals, columns Borussia Mönchengladbach goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.7%9.32
- 2–19.5%10.53
- 3–08.7%11.52
- 1–08.4%11.87
- 1–18.2%12.13
- 3–17.7%13.01
- 4–05.3%18.98
- 4–14.7%21.44
- 2–24.2%23.78
- 0–04.1%24.64
Winning margin
28.1%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 3.55
20.8%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 4.81
22.0%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 4.54
17.7%
Draw
fair 5.66
7.8%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 1
fair 12.88
2.8%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 2
fair 36.14
0.9%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 3+
fair 114.86
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Borussia Dortmund goals
9%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
23%4+
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals
41%0
37%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 70.9% | 69.0% | +2.0 pp |
| Draw | 17.7% | 19.1% | -1.4 pp |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 11.4% | 11.9% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.3% | 59.3% | +5.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.0% | 50.9% | +3.1 pp |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 2.43 | 2.24 | +0.18 |
| Expected goals Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0.89 | 0.83 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Borussia Dortmund win70.9%1.41
- Draw17.7%5.66
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win11.4%8.77
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw88.6%1.13
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or Borussia Mönchengladbach82.3%1.21
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw29.1%3.44
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund86.2%1.16
- Draw no bet Borussia Mönchengladbach13.8%7.22
Goals
- Over 0.595.9%1.04
- Over 1.584.7%1.18
- Over 2.564.3%1.56
- Over 3.542.2%2.37
- Over 4.524.0%4.17
- Under 1.515.3%6.54
- Under 2.535.7%2.80
- Under 3.557.8%1.73
Both teams to score
- Yes54.0%1.85
- No46.0%2.17
- Yes and over 2.545.7%2.19
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes33.7%2.96
- Draw and yes13.6%7.35
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win and yes6.6%15.08
Team goals
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.591.2%1.10
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.569.7%1.43
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.543.7%2.29
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 0.558.7%1.70
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.522.2%4.50
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 2.56.0%16.54
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet41.3%2.42
- Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet8.8%11.33
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil37.2%2.69
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win to nil4.8%20.96
Handicap
- Borussia Dortmund −1.548.9%2.04
- Borussia Dortmund −2.528.1%3.55
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.551.1%1.96
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +2.571.9%1.39
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −1.53.6%27.49
- Borussia Dortmund +1.596.4%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored126
Favourite won56.3%
Avg chance given to result43.1%
1X2 Brier0.559
Over 2.5 called right62.7%
BTTS called right56.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 16 | 38.1% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 41 | 45.1% | 41.5% |
| 50–60% | 33 | 54.8% | 57.6% |
| 60–70% | 22 | 65.2% | 77.3% |
| 70–80% | 11 | 74.3% | 72.7% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 88.9% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 107 of 126 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5446 | 0.5446 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.8% | 43.2% |
| Favourite won | 58.9% | 58.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 107 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 126 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.