Borussia Dortmund
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Borussia Dortmund
3rd · 21 pts · 10 played
DLWWD
3–3Full time
VfB Stuttgart
4th · 21 pts · 10 played
WWWLW
Borussia Dortmund59.2%fair odds 1.69
Draw21.5%fair odds 4.65
VfB Stuttgart19.2%fair odds 5.20
Expected goals2.11 – 1.14total 3.25
Likeliest score2–19.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Borussia Dortmund ↓ · VfB Stuttgart → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Borussia Dortmund goals, columns VfB Stuttgart goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%10.16
- 1–19.8%10.19
- 2–08.7%11.53
- 1–07.7%12.96
- 3–16.9%14.43
- 3–06.1%16.38
- 2–25.6%17.89
- 1–25.3%18.89
- 0–04.4%22.82
- 3–23.9%25.42
Winning margin
18.8%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 5.31
18.0%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 5.54
22.4%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 4.47
21.5%
Draw
fair 4.65
11.8%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 8.47
5.2%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 19.17
2.2%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 45.25
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+
Borussia Dortmund goals
12%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+
VfB Stuttgart goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 59.2% | 57.4% | +1.9 pp |
| Draw | 21.5% | 23.4% | -1.9 pp |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 19.2% | 19.2% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 55.1% | +7.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.2% | 54.3% | +5.8 pp |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 2.11 | 1.88 | +0.23 |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 1.14 | 1.01 | +0.13 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Borussia Dortmund win59.2%1.69
- Draw21.5%4.65
- VfB Stuttgart win19.2%5.20
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw80.8%1.24
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or VfB Stuttgart78.5%1.27
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw40.8%2.45
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund75.5%1.32
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart24.5%4.08
Goals
- Over 0.595.6%1.05
- Over 1.584.0%1.19
- Over 2.563.0%1.59
- Over 3.540.8%2.45
- Over 4.522.8%4.39
- Under 1.516.0%6.24
- Under 2.537.0%2.70
- Under 3.559.2%1.69
Both teams to score
- Yes60.2%1.66
- No39.8%2.51
- Yes and over 2.550.3%1.99
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes31.5%3.17
- Draw and yes17.1%5.83
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes11.5%8.69
Team goals
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.587.9%1.14
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.562.3%1.60
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.535.4%2.83
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.567.9%1.47
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.531.4%3.19
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.510.7%9.36
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet32.1%3.11
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet12.1%8.26
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil27.7%3.60
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil7.7%12.96
Handicap
- Borussia Dortmund −1.536.9%2.71
- Borussia Dortmund −2.518.8%5.31
- VfB Stuttgart +1.563.1%1.58
- VfB Stuttgart +2.581.2%1.23
- VfB Stuttgart −1.57.4%13.47
- Borussia Dortmund +1.592.6%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored91
Favourite won57.1%
Avg chance given to result44.0%
1X2 Brier0.539
Over 2.5 called right62.6%
BTTS called right58.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 14 | 38.1% | 42.9% |
| 40–50% | 28 | 45.1% | 39.3% |
| 50–60% | 20 | 54.4% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 65.5% | 84.2% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 74.2% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 73 of 91 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5141 | 0.5264 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.2% | 44.1% |
| Favourite won | 60.3% | 61.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 73 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 91 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.