Borussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Dortmund
3rd · 21 pts · 10 played
DLWWD
3–3Full time
VfB Stuttgart
4th · 21 pts · 10 played
WWWLW
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 64). Borussia Dortmund had 14 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 12.9 and had to travel 327 km.
Away travel327 kmRest days14 · 12.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Borussia Dortmund59%
Draw22%
VfB Stuttgart19%
Borussia Dortmund57%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart19%
Borussia Dortmund59%
Draw22%
VfB Stuttgart19%
Borussia Dortmund51%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart25%
Borussia Dortmund57%
Draw23%
VfB Stuttgart19%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 50
Team strength
Borussia DortmundVfB Stuttgart
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
69
AttackIn forecast
70
80
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia DortmundVfB Stuttgart
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
0.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
100%
Scored inContext
100%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.90
ShotsContext
15.30
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
33%
On target shareContext
37%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
68%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.50
8.80
Shots allowedContext
11.50
2.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.44
BlocksContext
3.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
80%
Save rateContext
80%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
529
PassesContext
529
454
Accurate passesContext
452
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.30
FoulsContext
11.40
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.56
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
100%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.60
ShotsContext
16.80
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
30%
On target shareContext
33%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.90
61%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.63
9.40
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.88
BlocksContext
3.50
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
83%
Save rateContext
78%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
490
PassesContext
520
415
Accurate passesContext
442
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.40
FoulsContext
13.00
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Dortmund
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km567 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfB Stuttgart
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel327 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Dortmund |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 12.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 327 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 567 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
23E. Can
3W. Anton
14M. Beier
7J. Bellingham
8F. Nmecha
26J. Ryerson
17C. Chukwuemeka
9S. Guirassy
10J. Brandt
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
22L. Assignon
6A. Stiller
30Chema Andrés
18J. Leweling
11B. El Khannouss
8Tiago Tomás
26D. Undav
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Dortmund
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Dortmund+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- VfB Stuttgart+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Dortmund · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.25
VfB Stuttgart · Away
1.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-3
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Dortmund | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | W 1–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Union Berlin | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 3–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 20 of 24 · 2.50 per game | 18 of 24 · 2.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Borussia Dortmund wins1 draws4 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game1.88 – 1.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets25% · 13%
- 8 Feb 2025Borussia Dortmund1–2VfB Stuttgart
- 22 Sep 2024VfB Stuttgart5–1Borussia Dortmund
- 6 Apr 2024Borussia Dortmund0–1VfB Stuttgart
- 11 Nov 2023VfB Stuttgart2–1Borussia Dortmund
- 15 Apr 2023VfB Stuttgart3–3Borussia Dortmund
- 22 Oct 2022Borussia Dortmund5–0VfB Stuttgart
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Dortmund | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Borussia Dortmund | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.70 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Dortmund | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 10.60 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.60 | 4.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 9.40 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.40 | 4.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.10league 4.12
Red cards0.20league 0.21
Cards 5+44%league 43%
Fouls23.3league 22.2
Penalties0.36league 0.36
Home wins34%league 45%
Borussia Dortmund4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.8
Pens for · against4 · 1
- W25 Oct 25H · 1.FC Köln1–02
- W26 Apr 25A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–21
- W28 Jan 24H · VfL Bochum3–11
- W23 Oct 21A · Arminia Bielefeld3–10
VfB Stuttgart4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L28 Feb 25H · Bayern München1–35
- W23 Nov 24H · VfL Bochum2–02
- W2 Mar 24A · VfL Wolfsburg3–22
- D5 Dec 21H · Hertha BSC2–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
