Borussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 49). Borussia Dortmund had 8.2 days of rest, VfL Wolfsburg 8.2 and had to travel 249 km.
Away travel249 kmRest days8.2 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Borussia Dortmund68%
Draw19%
VfL Wolfsburg13%
Borussia Dortmund65%
Draw21%
VfL Wolfsburg14%
Borussia Dortmund67%
Draw19%
VfL Wolfsburg14%
Borussia Dortmund60%
Draw22%
VfL Wolfsburg18%
Borussia Dortmund65%
Draw21%
VfL Wolfsburg14%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 101
Team strength
Borussia Dortmund
VfL Wolfsburg
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
69
AttackIn forecast
50
80
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia DortmundVfL Wolfsburg
2.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
2.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.95
100%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.00
ShotsContext
13.00
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
58%
On target shareContext
36%
10.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
86%
Box shareContext
57%
22%
ConversionContext
18%
2.00
OffsidesContext
—
9.00
Shots allowedContext
12.67
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
1.67
BlocksContext
3.67
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
73%
Save rateContext
62%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
653
PassesContext
383
584
Accurate passesContext
308
89%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.67
FoulsContext
12.67
8.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
2.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.97
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
100%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.30
ShotsContext
13.00
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
50%
On target shareContext
31%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
76%
Box shareContext
62%
24%
ConversionContext
11%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.80
10.40
Shots allowedContext
14.20
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.60
BlocksContext
3.90
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
67%
Save rateContext
60%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
559
PassesContext
383
486
Accurate passesContext
305
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.18
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.10
FoulsContext
9.90
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Dortmund
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km738 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel249 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Dortmund |
VfL Wolfsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 8.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 249 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 738 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
5A. Bensebaini
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
20M. Sabitzer
26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier
27K. Adeyemi
9S. Guirassy
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
21J. Mæhle
4K. Koulierakis
15M. Jenz
2K. Fischer
5Vinicius Souza
27M. Arnold
39P. Wimmer
10L. Majer
7A. Skov Olsen
9M. Amoura
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Dortmund+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- VfL Wolfsburg-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Dortmund · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
VfL Wolfsburg · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Dortmund | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
6 Borussia Dortmund wins1 draws1 VfL Wolfsburg wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.75
Over 2.563%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 13%
- 3 May 2025Borussia Dortmund4–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 22 Dec 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–3Borussia Dortmund
- 17 Feb 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–1Borussia Dortmund
- 23 Sep 2023Borussia Dortmund1–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 7 May 2023Borussia Dortmund6–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 8 Nov 2022VfL Wolfsburg2–0Borussia Dortmund
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Dortmund | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 4.00 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Borussia Dortmund | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 4.00 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Dortmund | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.66 | 10.33 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 8.12 | 10.50 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.60 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 101 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.53league 4.37
Red cards0.22league 0.34
Cards 5+51%league 51%
Fouls23.7league 22.9
Penalties0.25league 0.54
Home wins41%league 40%
Borussia Dortmund11 with this referee
Record5-3-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W20 Apr 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–21
- L8 Feb 25H · VfB Stuttgart1–25
- W18 May 24H · SV Darmstadt 984–00
- D21 Apr 24H · Bayer Leverkusen1–14
- D3 Dec 23A · Bayer Leverkusen1–12
VfL Wolfsburg9 with this referee
Record2-1-6
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- L25 Aug 24H · Bayern München2–32
- L10 Mar 24A · Bayer Leverkusen0–23
- L7 Oct 23A · VfB Stuttgart1–33
- W30 Apr 23H · FSV Mainz 053–01
- L28 Jan 23A · Werder Bremen1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Dortmund3 games · scored 8 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg3 games · scored 7 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 32 · conceded 14
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
9
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
9
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
