Borussia Dortmund
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Borussia Dortmund67.6%fair odds 1.48
Draw19.0%fair odds 5.26
VfL Wolfsburg13.4%fair odds 7.48
Expected goals2.31 – 0.94total 3.25
Likeliest score2–010.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfL Wolfsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Borussia Dortmund ↓ · VfL Wolfsburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Borussia Dortmund goals, columns VfL Wolfsburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.3%9.67
- 2–19.7%10.28
- 1–18.9%11.28
- 1–08.5%11.76
- 3–08.0%12.56
- 3–17.5%13.35
- 4–04.6%21.75
- 2–24.6%21.86
- 4–14.3%23.12
- 0–04.3%23.14
Winning margin
25.0%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 4.01
20.2%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 4.95
22.5%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 4.45
19.0%
Draw
fair 5.26
8.9%
VfL Wolfsburg by 1
fair 11.26
3.3%
VfL Wolfsburg by 2
fair 29.88
1.1%
VfL Wolfsburg by 3+
fair 88.26
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+
Borussia Dortmund goals
10%0
23%1
26%2
20%3
20%4+
VfL Wolfsburg goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 67.6% | 65.1% | +2.5 pp |
| Draw | 19.0% | 20.8% | -1.8 pp |
| VfL Wolfsburg win | 13.4% | 14.0% | -0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 56.7% | +6.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.4% | 51.3% | +4.1 pp |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 2.31 | 2.09 | +0.22 |
| Expected goals VfL Wolfsburg | 0.94 | 0.87 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Borussia Dortmund win67.6%1.48
- Draw19.0%5.26
- VfL Wolfsburg win13.4%7.48
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw86.6%1.15
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or VfL Wolfsburg81.0%1.24
- Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw32.4%3.09
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund83.5%1.20
- Draw no bet VfL Wolfsburg16.5%6.06
Goals
- Over 0.595.7%1.05
- Over 1.584.0%1.19
- Over 2.563.1%1.59
- Over 3.540.9%2.45
- Over 4.522.8%4.38
- Under 1.516.0%6.24
- Under 2.536.9%2.71
- Under 3.559.1%1.69
Both teams to score
- Yes55.4%1.81
- No44.6%2.24
- Yes and over 2.546.5%2.15
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes32.9%3.04
- Draw and yes14.7%6.80
- VfL Wolfsburg win and yes7.8%12.89
Team goals
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.590.1%1.11
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.567.1%1.49
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.540.7%2.46
- VfL Wolfsburg over 0.561.0%1.64
- VfL Wolfsburg over 1.524.2%4.13
- VfL Wolfsburg over 2.57.0%14.35
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet39.0%2.56
- VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet9.9%10.08
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil34.7%2.88
- VfL Wolfsburg win to nil5.6%17.84
Handicap
- Borussia Dortmund −1.545.1%2.22
- Borussia Dortmund −2.525.0%4.01
- VfL Wolfsburg +1.554.9%1.82
- VfL Wolfsburg +2.575.0%1.33
- VfL Wolfsburg −1.54.5%22.32
- Borussia Dortmund +1.595.5%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored35
Favourite won45.7%
Avg chance given to result41.1%
1X2 Brier0.605
Over 2.5 called right71.4%
BTTS called right65.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 37.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 9 | 45.1% | 22.2% |
| 50–60% | 8 | 54.4% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 66.1% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 72.3% | 33.3% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 17 of 35 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5672 | 0.5452 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.1% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 47.1% | 58.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 17 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach72·17·11
- ✗Eintracht Frankfurt 3–4 Union Berlin66·20·14
- ✓RB Leipzig 3–1 1.FC Köln58·23·19
- ✓Hamburger SV 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim45·26·28
- ✓FC Augsburg 1–4 FSV Mainz 0537·26·37
- ✓1899 Hoffenheim 1–4 Bayern München12·18·70
- ✗Werder Bremen 0–3 SC Freiburg48·25·27
- ✓VfB Stuttgart 2–0 FC St. Pauli63·21·16
- ✗Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–4 Werder Bremen39·26·35
- ✗FC St. Pauli 2–1 FC Augsburg36·27·37
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 35 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.