Borussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Mönchengladbach
12th · 12 pts · 11 played
LLWWW
0–0Full time
RB Leipzig
2nd · 25 pts · 11 played
WWWLW
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 45). Borussia Mönchengladbach had 6.2 days of rest, RB Leipzig 5.2 and had to travel 413 km.
Away travel413 kmRest days6.2 · 5.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Borussia Mönchengladbach29%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig45%
Borussia Mönchengladbach29%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig44%
Borussia Mönchengladbach29%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig45%
Borussia Mönchengladbach23%
Draw24%
RB Leipzig53%
Borussia Mönchengladbach29%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig44%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mönchengladbach)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTimo Gerach
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 24
Team strength
Borussia MönchengladbachRB Leipzig
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
34
AttackIn forecast
76
21
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia MönchengladbachRB Leipzig
1.45
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.18
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
55%
Scored inContext
91%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
12.09
ShotsContext
15.82
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.73
40%
On target shareContext
36%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.73
69%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.14
14.18
Shots allowedContext
13.73
5.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.64
3.91
BlocksContext
4.45
3.18
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
61%
Save rateContext
71%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
420
PassesContext
456
354
Accurate passesContext
383
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.03
11.09
FoulsContext
9.36
10.09
Fouls sufferedContext
10.64
1.64
Yellow cardsContext
1.55
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.97
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
60%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.60
ShotsContext
16.20
5.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
42%
On target shareContext
38%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.10
71%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.14
14.90
Shots allowedContext
13.20
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.10
BlocksContext
4.40
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
62%
Save rateContext
88%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
408
PassesContext
464
341
Accurate passesContext
390
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.13
11.20
FoulsContext
9.00
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km770 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
RB Leipzig
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel413 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Mönchengladbach |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 5.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 413 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 770 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
20L. Netz
4K. Diks
30N. Elvedi
29J. Scally
10F. Neuhaus
6Y. Engelhardt
27R. Reitz
17J. Castrop
15H. Tabaković
9F. Honorat
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
13N. Seiwald
24X. Schlager
7A. Nusa
11C. Harder
49Y. Diomande
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- RB Leipzig+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home
0.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 2.33
RB Leipzig · Away
1.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Mönchengladbach | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–3 H | L 0–6 A |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–4 H | W 2–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 7 of 18 · 1.17 per game | 15 of 18 · 2.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins1 draws4 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.38
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets38% · 50%
- 29 Mar 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach1–0RB Leipzig
- 9 Nov 2024RB Leipzig0–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 17 Feb 2024RB Leipzig2–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 23 Sep 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach0–1RB Leipzig
- 11 Mar 2023RB Leipzig3–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 17 Sep 2022Borussia Mönchengladbach3–0RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.45 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.73 | 1.18 | |
| Match goals | 3.18 | 3.18 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 55% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 45% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 9% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.90 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 6.09 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.73 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 10.82 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.73 | 1.55 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.45 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 4.18 | 3.82 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 5/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 5/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.90 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.70 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Timo Gerach Germany · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.75league 3.96
Red cards0.29league 0.20
Cards 5+46%league 40%
Fouls20.8league 21.8
Penalties0.46league 0.35
Home wins38%league 44%
Borussia Mönchengladbach4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W15 Mar 25A · Werder Bremen4–22
- D4 May 24A · Werder Bremen2–20
- D17 Sep 23A · SV Darmstadt 983–31
- W9 Apr 23H · VfL Wolfsburg2–00
RB Leipzig1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D7 Oct 23H · VfL Bochum0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Mönchengladbach11 games · scored 16 · conceded 19
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
6
5
76-90
RB Leipzig11 games · scored 22 · conceded 13
5
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 16 · conceded 19
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
6
5
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 22 · conceded 7
5
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
