Borussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Mönchengladbach
14th · 1 pts · 2 played
DL
0–4Full time
Werder Bremen
16th · 1 pts · 2 played
LD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Werder Bremen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 43). Absences weigh more on Werder Bremen. Borussia Mönchengladbach had 15.1 days of rest, Werder Bremen 15.1 and had to travel 265 km.
Away travel265 kmRest days15.1 · 15.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Borussia Mönchengladbach39%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen35%
Borussia Mönchengladbach38%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen35%
Borussia Mönchengladbach38%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen36%
Borussia Mönchengladbach32%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen42%
Borussia Mönchengladbach39%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen34%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mönchengladbach)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMatthias Jollenbeck
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 53
Team strength
Borussia MönchengladbachWerder Bremen
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
34
AttackIn forecast
56
21
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia MönchengladbachWerder Bremen
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.50
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
0.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.28
-1.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.99
0%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.50
ShotsContext
11.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
29%
On target shareContext
46%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
73%
Box shareContext
53%
0%
ConversionContext
18%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.00
Shots allowedContext
14.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.50
BlocksContext
3.50
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.00
71%
Save rateContext
22%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
492
PassesContext
441
427
Accurate passesContext
365
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.29
10.50
FoulsContext
10.00
7.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.70
ShotsContext
13.10
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
33%
On target shareContext
38%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
74%
Box shareContext
71%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.88
OffsidesContext
2.56
18.40
Shots allowedContext
13.10
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
6.00
BlocksContext
4.10
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
71%
Save rateContext
72%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
406
PassesContext
444
330
Accurate passesContext
358
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.01
8.40
FoulsContext
8.90
8.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel265 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Mönchengladbach |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 15.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 265 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
26L. Ullrich
2F. Chiarodia
30N. Elvedi
4K. Diks
16P. Sander
27R. Reitz
25R. Hack
13G. Reyna
9F. Honorat
18S. Machino
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
27F. Agu
31Karim Coulibaly
32M. Friedl
3Y. Sugawara
14S. Lynen
6J. Stage
7S. Mbangula
18Cameron Puertas
20R. Schmid
17M. Grüll
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Mönchengladbach
Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Werder Bremen-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Werder Bremen · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins3 draws1 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game2.50 – 2.33
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 15 Mar 2025Werder Bremen2–4Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 3 Nov 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach4–1Werder Bremen
- 4 May 2024Werder Bremen2–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 15 Dec 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach2–2Werder Bremen
- 17 Mar 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach2–2Werder Bremen
- 1 Oct 2022Werder Bremen5–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 3.50 | |
| Match goals | 0.50 | 5.50 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 3.50 | |
| Match goals | 0.50 | 5.50 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 14.00 | 10.00 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 3.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 5.50 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.90 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 12.50 | 9.11 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.10 | 5.00 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matthias Jollenbeck Germany · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.83league 4.46
Red cards0.19league 0.38
Cards 5+40%league 54%
Fouls23.1league 22.9
Penalties0.28league 0.46
Home wins53%league 42%
Borussia Mönchengladbach6 with this referee
Record4-0-2
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W25 Jan 25H · VfL Bochum3–01
- W27 May 23H · FC Augsburg2–00
- L11 Mar 23A · RB Leipzig0–30
- W4 Nov 22H · VfB Stuttgart3–12
- L1 Oct 22A · Werder Bremen1–51
Werder Bremen4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D15 Jan 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim3–36
- L3 Mar 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21
- L12 Nov 22H · RB Leipzig1–21
- W1 Oct 22H · Borussia Mönchengladbach5–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Mönchengladbach2 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Werder Bremen2 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
7
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
