Bournemouth vs Brighton – 13 Sep 2025

Premier League Gameweek 4 Sat, Sep 13 · 15:00 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 7th · 6 pts · 3 played LWW

2–1Full time

Brighton 10th · 4 pts · 3 played DLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bournemouth were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Bournemouth had 14 days of rest, Brighton 13 and had to travel 128 km.

Away travel128 kmRest days14 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1

Bournemouth43%

Draw26%

Brighton31%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.29

Bournemouth42%

Draw27%

Brighton31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

Bournemouth43%

Draw26%

Brighton31%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.29

Bournemouth36%

Draw26%

Brighton38%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.45

Bournemouth42%

Draw27%

Brighton31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

No weather data yet

RefereePeter Bankes

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 103

Team strength

Bournemouth

Brighton

72 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

83 AttackIn forecast 87

82 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Brighton

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.53 xGVia Att/Def 2.07

0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext -1.07

100% Scored inContext 67%

67% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.67 ShotsContext 11.67

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

30% On target shareContext 43%

10.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.67

71% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 9%

2.33 OffsidesContext 3.33

10.00 Shots allowedContext 10.00

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.67

1.67 BlocksContext 1.00

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.33

67% Save rateContext 50%

46% PossessionIn forecast 48%

347 PassesContext 409

268 Accurate passesContext 339

77% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.68

12.00 FoulsContext 15.67

13.33 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.94

1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

80% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.30 ShotsContext 14.40

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

29% On target shareContext 40%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.40

68% Box shareContext 64%

9% ConversionContext 14%

2.11 OffsidesContext 2.33

10.50 Shots allowedContext 11.80

4.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.75 BlocksContext 2.70

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

73% Save rateContext 63%

51% PossessionIn forecast 52%

396 PassesContext 446

322 Accurate passesContext 378

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.97

13.50 FoulsContext 11.60

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km301 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brighton

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel128 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Aug	13Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	128 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	301 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 44V. Milosavljević 23J. Hill

8A. Scott 12T. Adams

7D. Brooks 16M. Tavernier 24A. Semenyo

9Evanilson

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

29M. De Cuyper 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 34J. Veltman

13J. Hinshelwood 20J. Milner

22K. Mitoma 10G. Rutter 11Y. Minteh

18D. Welbeck

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Absences are shown before kick-off

Brighton Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Brighton+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Brighton · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Bournemouth wins0 draws5 Brighton wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.67 Over 2.567% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 33%

25 Feb 2025Brighton2–1Bournemouth
23 Nov 2024Bournemouth1–2Brighton
28 Apr 2024Bournemouth3–0Brighton
24 Sep 2023Brighton3–1Bournemouth
4 Apr 2023Bournemouth0–2Brighton
4 Feb 2023Brighton1–0Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	1.00
Conceded per game	1.33	1.33
Match goals	2.67	2.33	2.85
Over 1.5	33%	100%
Over 2.5	33%	33%	54%
Over 3.5	33%	0%
Both teams scored	33%	67%	58%
Clean sheets	67%	0%
Failed to score	0%	33%
Games	3	3

	Bournemouth	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	1.00
Conceded per game	1.33	1.33
Match goals	2.67	2.33	2.85
Over 1.5	33%	100%
Over 2.5	33%	33%	54%
Over 3.5	33%	0%
Both teams scored	33%	67%	58%
Clean sheets	67%	0%
Failed to score	0%	33%
Games	3	3

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	7.50	3.00
Corners conceded	4.50	2.33
Match total	12.00	5.33	9.27
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/3
Over 9.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/3
Over 10.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/3
Cards
Cards	2.67	2.67
Opponent cards	2.67	3.00
Match total	5.34	5.67	3.47
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	100% 3/3
Over 4.5	67% 2/3	67% 2/3

	Bournemouth	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.60
Corners conceded	4.75	3.40
Match total	9.75	8.00	9.27
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.90
Opponent cards	2.60	2.30
Match total	5.60	4.20	3.47
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Peter Bankes 103 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.06league 3.45

Red cards0.10league 0.10

Cards 5+44%league 39%

Fouls21.3league 22.3

Penalties0.14league 0.32

Home wins47%league 52%

Bournemouth6 with this referee

Record4-2-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.5 Pens for · against3 · 0 Reds1

D27 Apr 25H · Manchester United1–15
W30 Nov 24A · Wolves4–21
W9 Dec 23A · Manchester United3–01
D12 Aug 23H · West Ham1–11
W1 Apr 23H · Fulham2–11

Brighton10 with this referee

Record5-2-3 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.6 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds1

W19 Jan 25A · Manchester United3–13
L5 Dec 24A · Fulham1–32
W19 Oct 24A · Newcastle1–02
L28 Sep 24A · Chelsea2–42
W6 Dec 23H · Brentford2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.