Bournemouth
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bournemouth were slight favourites.
Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 54). Absences weigh more on Burnley. Bournemouth had 4.8 days of rest, Burnley 6.9 and had to travel 343 km.
Away travel343 kmRest days4.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Bournemouth56%
Draw23%
Burnley21%
Bournemouth54%
Draw25%
Burnley22%
Bournemouth55%
Draw24%
Burnley21%
Bournemouth48%
Draw25%
Burnley27%
Bournemouth55%
Draw24%
Burnley21%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 143
Team strength
Bournemouth
Burnley
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
83
AttackIn forecast
27
82
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBurnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BournemouthBurnley
1.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.06
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.09
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
75%
Scored inContext
69%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
13.13
ShotsContext
8.75
5.06
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
39%
On target shareContext
39%
8.47
Shots in the boxContext
5.19
60%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.92
12.25
Shots allowedContext
15.44
4.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.44
BlocksContext
4.57
3.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.69
65%
Save rateContext
67%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
426
PassesContext
376
344
Accurate passesContext
294
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.64
12.94
FoulsContext
9.81
11.19
Fouls sufferedContext
9.31
2.56
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.09
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.00
ShotsContext
8.90
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
43%
On target shareContext
43%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
5.20
59%
Box shareContext
56%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.30
OffsidesContext
1.86
13.70
Shots allowedContext
13.10
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.10
BlocksContext
3.25
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
62%
Save rateContext
64%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
437
PassesContext
420
355
Accurate passesContext
335
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.66
13.50
FoulsContext
10.30
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bournemouth
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km616 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Burnley
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel343 km273 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bournemouth |
Burnley |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 15 Dec | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 343 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 616 km | 273 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bournemouth
Confirmed XI
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
5M. Senesi
18B. Diakité
20Álex Jiménez
4L. Cook
16M. Tavernier
24A. Semenyo
19J. Kluivert
7D. Brooks
9Evanilson
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
23Lucas Pires
18H. Ekdal
4J. Worrall
29J. Laurent
11J. Anthony
24J. Cullen
8L. Ugochukwu
2K. Walker
19Z. Flemming
7J. Bruun Larsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bournemouth
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Burnley
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bournemouth+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Burnley-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Bournemouth · Home
1.88points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 0.63
Burnley · Away
0.38points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-7
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 2.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Bournemouth | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | D 4–4 A | L 2–3 A |
| Chelsea | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Sunderland | L 2–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| West Ham | D 2–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Aston Villa | L 0–4 A | L 1–2 A |
| Manchester City | L 1–3 A | L 1–5 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 3–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Fulham | W 3–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Leeds | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Newcastle | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Tottenham | W 1–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Wolves | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Liverpool | L 2–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 18 of 42 · 1.29 per game | 10 of 42 · 0.71 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Bournemouth wins0 draws0 Burnley wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 3 Mar 2024Burnley0–2Bournemouth
- 28 Oct 2023Bournemouth2–1Burnley
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bournemouth | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 2.06 | |
| Match goals | 3.31 | 3.19 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 56% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 31% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Bournemouth | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 3.20 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bournemouth | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.21 | 3.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.93 | 6.38 | |
| Match total | 10.14 | 10.07 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 10/14 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 8/14 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 7/14 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.63 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 1.31 | |
| Match total | 4.88 | 2.94 | 3.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 12/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 8/16 | 19% 3/16 | |
| Bournemouth | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 10.22 | 10.00 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.00 | 3.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 143 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.89league 3.68
Red cards0.13league 0.11
Cards 5+37%league 39%
Fouls21.9league 22.0
Penalties0.24league 0.20
Home wins41%league 48%
Bournemouth7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D16 Dec 24H · West Ham1–10
- D26 Oct 24A · Aston Villa1–16
- W11 Nov 23H · Newcastle2–02
- L20 May 23H · Manchester United0–11
- W30 Apr 23H · Leeds4–11
Burnley8 with this referee
Record2-2-4
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L1 Nov 25H · Arsenal0–22
- W2 Dec 23H · Sheffield Utd5–02
- L1 Mar 22H · Leicester0–21
- D23 Oct 21A · Southampton2–23
- D25 Sep 21A · Leicester2–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bournemouth16 games · scored 25 · conceded 28
5
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
6
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
8
8
76-90
Burnley16 games · scored 18 · conceded 33
1
5
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
9
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
7
10
76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 17 · conceded 21
3
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
6
6
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
9
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
