Bournemouth
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bournemouth
10th · 41 pts · 30 played
WDDDD
2–2Full time
Manchester United
3rd · 54 pts · 30 played
DWWLW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 73). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Manchester United. Bournemouth had 6.2 days of rest, Manchester United 5.3 and had to travel 308 km.
Away travel308 kmRest days6.2 · 5.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Bournemouth37%
Draw25%
Manchester United37%
Bournemouth38%
Draw27%
Manchester United35%
Bournemouth37%
Draw26%
Manchester United38%
Bournemouth30%
Draw25%
Manchester United45%
Bournemouth37%
Draw27%
Manchester United37%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)
No weather data yet
RefereeStuart Attwell
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 136
Team strength
BournemouthManchester United
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
83
AttackIn forecast
72
82
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BournemouthManchester United
1.47
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.53
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.37
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
77%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
13.93
ShotsContext
15.93
4.77
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.77
34%
On target shareContext
36%
8.62
Shots in the boxContext
10.62
59%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.04
12.63
Shots allowedContext
10.83
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
4.03
BlocksContext
3.46
3.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.48
68%
Save rateContext
64%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
411
PassesContext
474
327
Accurate passesContext
393
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.90
FoulsContext
9.97
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.97
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
-0.62
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
70%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.10
ShotsContext
14.60
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
34%
On target shareContext
43%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
61%
Box shareContext
65%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.86
14.20
Shots allowedContext
10.40
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
4.60
BlocksContext
3.70
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
80%
Save rateContext
67%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
411
PassesContext
494
321
Accurate passesContext
419
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.00
Team ratingContext
7.03
10.80
FoulsContext
10.10
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bournemouth
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km687 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester United
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel308 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bournemouth |
Manchester United |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 5.3Premier League 2025-2026, 15 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 308 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 687 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.6 | 24 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bournemouth
Confirmed XI
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
5M. Senesi
23J. Hill
20Álex Jiménez
10R. Christie
8A. Scott
21A. Adli
16M. Tavernier
37Rayan
9Evanilson
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
31S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
5J. Maguire
15L. Yoro
2Diogo Dalot
37K. Mainoo
18Casemiro
10Matheus Cunha
8Bruno Fernandes
16A. Diallo
19B. Mbeumo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bournemouth
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester United
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bournemouth+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Manchester United-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Bournemouth · Home
1.67points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-7-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.00
Manchester United · Away
1.40points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-6-4
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Bournemouth | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Brentford | D 0–0 HL 1–4 A | L 1–3 A |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| West Ham | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Everton | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Aston Villa | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Wolves | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Liverpool | W 3–2 HL 2–4 A | W 2–1 A |
| Brighton | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 4–2 H |
| Tottenham | W 3–2 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Arsenal | L 2–3 H | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Chelsea | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Manchester City | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Crystal Palace | D 3–3 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Fulham | W 3–1 H | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Leeds | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Newcastle | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 40 of 87 · 1.38 per game | 53 of 87 · 1.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Bournemouth wins3 draws2 Manchester United wins
Goals per game1.86 – 1.57
Over 2.571%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets29% · 29%
- 15 Dec 2025Manchester United4–4Bournemouth
- 27 Apr 2025Bournemouth1–1Manchester United
- 22 Dec 2024Manchester United0–3Bournemouth
- 13 Apr 2024Bournemouth2–2Manchester United
- 9 Dec 2023Manchester United0–3Bournemouth
- 20 May 2023Bournemouth0–1Manchester United
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.47 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.53 | 1.37 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.17 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 73% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 10% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.64 | 4.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.57 | 5.03 | |
| Match total | 11.21 | 9.41 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 79% 22/28 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 68% 19/28 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 16/28 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.53 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.93 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.26 | 3.83 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 19/30 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 13/30 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 12.20 | 8.89 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.30 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stuart Attwell 136 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.99league 3.77
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+45%league 40%
Fouls21.0league 21.5
Penalties0.20league 0.21
Home wins48%league 42%
Bournemouth9 with this referee
Record4-1-4
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L10 May 25H · Aston Villa0–14
- W18 Jan 25A · Newcastle4–16
- L23 Nov 24H · Brighton1–22
- W31 Aug 24A · Everton3–21
- W24 Apr 24A · Wolves1–02
Manchester United13 with this referee
Record7-4-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 2
- D7 Jan 26A · Burnley2–20
- W4 Oct 25H · Sunderland2–01
- W14 Sep 24A · Southampton3–04
- W26 Aug 23H · Nottingham Forest3–24
- W25 May 23H · Chelsea4–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bournemouth30 games · scored 44 · conceded 46
7
5
0-15
7
7
16-30
7
9
31-45
3
7
46-60
8
5
61-75
12
13
76-90
Manchester United30 games · scored 54 · conceded 41
4
4
0-15
7
4
16-30
10
6
31-45
11
8
46-60
8
7
61-75
14
12
76-90
Bournemouth9 games · scored 10 · conceded 6
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
