Bournemouth
Attack+4%
Defense risk−13%
Our take
Bournemouth were slight favourites.
Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 58). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sunderland. Bournemouth were without A. Scott. Sunderland were without D. Ballard and T. Meunier. Bournemouth had 2.8 days of rest, Sunderland 2.8 and had to travel 466 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel466 kmRest days2.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Bournemouth55%
Draw23%
Sunderland22%
Bournemouth56%
Draw24%
Sunderland20%
Bournemouth54%
Draw23%
Sunderland22%
Bournemouth47%
Draw25%
Sunderland29%
Bournemouth53%
Draw24%
Sunderland23%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)
14°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 17 km/h
- Humidity 54%
RefereeCraig Pawson
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 150
Team strength
Bournemouth
Sunderland
76
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
57
83
AttackIn forecast
62
82
DefenceIn forecast
59
61
Form indexContext
58
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack−5%
Defense risk+3%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
BournemouthSunderland
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.74
83%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
12.83
ShotsContext
13.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
39%
On target shareContext
36%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
8.17
64%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
2.25
OffsidesContext
3.00
10.67
Shots allowedContext
12.17
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.80
BlocksContext
3.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.60
55%
Save rateContext
40%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
412
PassesContext
416
332
Accurate passesContext
338
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.50
FoulsContext
12.17
12.83
Fouls sufferedContext
13.83
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.90
ShotsContext
14.80
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
34%
On target shareContext
31%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
61%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.40
Shots allowedContext
10.50
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
3.63
BlocksContext
3.30
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.88
61%
Save rateContext
52%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
423
PassesContext
410
343
Accurate passesContext
335
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.20
FoulsContext
12.90
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bournemouth
DWLLW
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km301 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 61 · 7 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
Sunderland
LWLLW
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel466 km3,548 km in 14d
Schedule load24%Moderate
Form 58 · 6 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +0.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bournemouth |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Moderate · 24 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 466 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 301 km | 3,548 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.3 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bournemouth
Confirmed XI
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
14António Silva
5J. Hill
15A. Smith
10R. Christie
12T. Adams
16M. Tavernier
4L. Cook
37Rayan
9Evanilson
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
4K. Danso
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
28E. Le Fée
11C. Rigg
32T. Hume
57T. Tuterov
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bournemouth
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −18.9% · Defence line −8.5% of weighted minutes
- MID A. Scott Starter 7.09 Att −12.0% Def −8.1%
- ATT E. Kroupi Rotation 6.78 Att −6.9%
- DEF V. Milosavljević Depth 6.80 Def −0.4%
Sunderland
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −6.8% · Defence line −16.5% of weighted minutes
- DEF D. Ballard Starter 6.69 Def −8.5%
- DEF T. Meunier Starter 6.51 Def −7.9%
- ATT W. Isidor Rotation 6.58 Att −4.3%
- ATT R. Mundle Rotation 6.48 Att −2.5%
Total impact vs full squads
- Bournemouth+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Sunderland+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Bournemouth · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Sunderland · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Bournemouth | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Manchester City | L 1–2 A | L 3–5 A |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Bournemouth wins1 draws1 Sunderland wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 28 Feb 2026Bournemouth1–1Sunderland
- 29 Nov 2025Sunderland3–2Bournemouth
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bournemouth | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 3.00 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Bournemouth | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.90 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bournemouth | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 8.50 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Bournemouth | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 8.90 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Craig Pawson 150 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.92league 3.97
Red cards0.10league 0.18
Cards 5+38%league 45%
Fouls22.8league 23.0
Penalties0.23league 0.17
Home wins41%league 38%
Bournemouth10 with this referee
Record4-3-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D24 May 26A · Nottingham Forest1–11
- D3 Mar 26H · Brentford0–02
- W25 Jan 25H · Nottingham Forest5–02
- W22 Dec 24A · Manchester United3–03
- W6 Dec 23A · Crystal Palace2–03
Sunderland4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L22 Feb 26H · Fulham1–31
- D8 Nov 25H · Arsenal2–22
- W7 Dec 24H · Stoke City2–10
- L18 Oct 22A · Blackburn0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bournemouth6 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
Sunderland6 games · scored 6 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
5
46-60
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
