Bournemouth vs Tottenham

Premier League Gameweek 28 Wed, Mar 3 · 20:00 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 15th · 6 pts · 7 played DDLLW

VS— Compare

Tottenham 16th · 6 pts · 7 played DDLDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel151 kmRest days4.2 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Bournemouth—%

Draw—%

Tottenham—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

Forecast from 16 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Alert Bournemouth 1.6 Goals conceded per match Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals conceded · W/D/L colours

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Bournemouth

Tottenham

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

83 AttackIn forecast 56

82 DefenceIn forecast 74

74 Form indexContext 58

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Tottenham

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.86

1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43

1.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

-0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

86% Scored inContext 43%

14% Clean sheetsContext 29%

15.14 ShotsContext 14.14

5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

34% On target shareContext 27%

9.57 Shots in the boxContext 8.57

64% Box shareContext 60%

9% ConversionContext 6%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.86

9.57 Shots allowedContext 14.14

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.71

2.80 BlocksContext 4.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

55% Save rateContext 63%

52% PossessionIn forecast 61%

433 PassesContext 535

351 Accurate passesContext 470

81% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.84

13.00 FoulsContext 13.86

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.71

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.29

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

90% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.80 ShotsContext 14.40

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.89

32% On target shareContext 24%

9.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

62% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 6%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.44

10.30 Shots allowedContext 12.90

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

3.29 BlocksContext 3.40

2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

61% Save rateContext 64%

53% PossessionIn forecast 59%

434 PassesContext 510

353 Accurate passesContext 443

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.85

12.20 FoulsContext 14.20

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.20

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth WLLWW

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km378 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 74 · 9 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected

W18 OctH · Sunderland2–01.8 xPts
W15 OctH · Sturm Graz3–02.3 xPts
L10 OctA · Chelsea1–51.3 xPts
L20 SepH · Liverpool0–11.6 xPts
W17 SepA · Real Sociedad2–11.8 xPts

Tottenham DDLDW

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel151 km143 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 58 · 6 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected

W19 OctH · Coventry3–11.8 xPts
D10 OctA · Manchester United1–10.7 xPts
L19 SepH · Aston Villa2–31.3 xPts
D12 SepH · Everton0–01.4 xPts
D5 SepA · Nottingham Forest0–00.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Tottenham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 27 Feb	4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 27 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	151 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	378 km	143 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	9.8	9.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sunderland (H) 2–0, 18 Oct

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith

10R. Christie 12T. Adams

16M. Tavernier 4L. Cook 37Rayan

9Evanilson

Tottenham Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Coventry (H) 3–1, 19 Oct

31A. Kinský(G)

3A. Robertson 37M. van de Ven 4T. Adarabioyo 6J. van Hecke

16S. Tonali 14A. Gray

22O. Marmoush 10J. Maddison 20M. Kudus

19D. Solanke

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Tottenham Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.00

Tottenham · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Bournemouth	Tottenham
Brentford	D 2–2 H	L 0–3 A
Newcastle	D 2–2 A	L 0–2 H
Everton	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 H
Points	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Bournemouth wins1 draws3 Tottenham wins

Goals per game1.63 – 1.75 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets25% · 13%

7 Jan 2026Bournemouth3–2Tottenham
30 Aug 2025Tottenham0–1Bournemouth
9 Mar 2025Tottenham2–2Bournemouth
5 Dec 2024Bournemouth1–0Tottenham
31 Dec 2023Tottenham3–1Bournemouth
26 Aug 2023Bournemouth0–2Tottenham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Tottenham
Scored per game	1.29	0.86
Conceded per game	1.86	1.43
Match goals	3.14	2.29
Over 1.5	86%	71%
Over 2.5	57%	43%
Over 3.5	43%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	43%
Clean sheets	14%	29%
Failed to score	14%	57%
Games	7	7

	Bournemouth	Tottenham
Scored per game	1.50	0.90
Conceded per game	1.50	1.30
Match goals	3.00	2.20
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	40%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	4.71	6.57
Corners conceded	3.86	4.43
Match total	8.57	11.00	9.49
Over 8.5	29% 2/7	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	71% 5/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.43
Opponent cards	1.57	2.29
Match total	4.57	3.72	4.17
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	14% 1/7

	Bournemouth	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	7.10
Corners conceded	4.60	4.30
Match total	9.20	11.40	9.49
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.80	1.90
Opponent cards	1.80	2.30
Match total	4.60	4.20	4.17
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.