Chelsea vs Coventry – 3 Mar 2027

Premier League Gameweek 28 Wed, Mar 3 · 20:00 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea 4th · 13 pts · 7 played LDLWW

VS— Compare

Coventry 17th · 6 pts · 7 played LLWWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel138 kmRest days4.2 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Chelsea—%

Draw—%

Coventry—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (London)

Forecast from 16 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Chelsea

Coventry

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

77 AttackIn forecast 47

74 DefenceIn forecast 59

69 Form indexContext 64

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Coventry

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Chelsea

Coventry

2.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.86

1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62

+1.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

86% Scored inContext 43%

14% Clean sheetsContext 14%

14.29 ShotsContext 10.29

5.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.29

39% On target shareContext 32%

9.14 Shots in the boxContext 7.14

63% Box shareContext 64%

17% ConversionContext 8%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.43 Shots allowedContext 17.43

5.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.71

3.67 BlocksContext 6.83

4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.14

73% Save rateContext 46%

47% PossessionIn forecast 38%

432 PassesContext 323

361 Accurate passesContext 247

84% Pass accuracyContext 77%

7.09 Team ratingContext 6.74

9.29 FoulsContext 11.00

11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.14

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.90 Goals minus xGContext +0.61

90% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.30 ShotsContext 11.70

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

40% On target shareContext 33%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

60% Box shareContext 62%

17% ConversionContext 15%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.33

12.50 Shots allowedContext 15.20

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.44 BlocksContext 5.78

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

74% Save rateContext 49%

48% PossessionIn forecast 45%

442 PassesContext 380

370 Accurate passesContext 304

84% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.91

10.50 FoulsContext 9.70

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea LDLWW

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km325 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 69 · 7 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected

W17 OctA · Everton2–01.3 xPts
W10 OctH · Bournemouth5–11.5 xPts
L18 SepA · Brentford0–31.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Hull City2–22.3 xPts
L6 SepA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts

Coventry LLWWL

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel138 km263 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.3 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

L19 OctA · Tottenham1–31.0 xPts
W12 OctH · Newcastle4–11.3 xPts
W19 SepA · Nottingham Forest1–00.7 xPts
L13 SepH · Brighton0–51.1 xPts
L5 SepA · Manchester City0–10.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Chelsea	Coventry
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 27 Feb	4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 27 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	138 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	325 km	263 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	9.8	9.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Everton (A) 2–0, 17 Oct

1E. Martínez(G)

21J. Hato 6L. Colwill 5M. Lacroix 34J. Acheampong

14J. Henderson 25M. Caicedo

17M. Rogers 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto

9João Pedro

Coventry Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Tottenham (A) 1–3, 19 Oct

19C. Rushworth(G)

3J. Dasilva 2E. Pinnock 4B. Thomas 27M. van Ewijk

6M. Grimes 8C. Yirenkyi

23S. Thomas-Asante 5J. Rudoni 7T. Sakamoto

49S. Chérif

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Chelsea Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Coventry Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 3.67
Conceded: 2.00

Coventry · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Chelsea	Coventry
Hull City	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 H
Arsenal	L 1–2 A	L 0–3 A
Brighton	W 4–3 H	L 0–5 H
Points	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game	0 of 9 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Chelsea	Coventry
Scored per game	2.43	0.86
Conceded per game	1.86	2.00
Match goals	4.29	2.86
Over 1.5	100%	57%
Over 2.5	86%	57%
Over 3.5	57%	43%
Both teams scored	71%	29%
Clean sheets	14%	14%
Failed to score	14%	57%
Games	7	7

	Chelsea	Coventry
Scored per game	2.10	0.86
Conceded per game	1.70	2.00
Match goals	3.80	2.86
Over 1.5	100%	57%
Over 2.5	80%	57%
Over 3.5	40%	43%
Both teams scored	80%	29%
Clean sheets	10%	14%
Failed to score	10%	57%
Games	10	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Chelsea	Coventry	League
Corners
Corners won	5.86	3.71
Corners conceded	5.43	4.71
Match total	11.29	8.42	9.49
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	29% 2/7
Over 9.5	71% 5/7	14% 1/7
Over 10.5	57% 4/7	0% 0/7
Cards
Cards	1.86	1.29
Opponent cards	3.00	1.43
Match total	4.86	2.72	4.17
Over 3.5	86% 6/7	29% 2/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	14% 1/7

	Chelsea	Coventry	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	3.56
Corners conceded	5.30	4.22
Match total	10.10	7.78	9.49
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	22% 2/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	11% 1/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	0% 0/9
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.20
Opponent cards	3.10	1.50
Match total	5.70	2.70	4.17
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.