Premier League Gameweek 28 Wed, Mar 3 · 20:00 Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex
Brentford 6th · 10 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Ipswich 10th · 9 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel119 kmRest days4.2 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Brentford—%
Draw—%
Ipswich—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)

Forecast from 16 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Brentford and Ipswich. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

BrentfordIpswich
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
75 Current StrengthIn forecast 49
73 AttackIn forecast 59
73 DefenceIn forecast 50
61 Form indexContext 64
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brentford

Attack—
Defense risk—

Ipswich

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

BrentfordIpswich
1.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57
1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.14
1.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.03
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.05
100% Scored inContext 71%
29% Clean sheetsContext 0%
15.00 ShotsContext 11.00
4.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.43
28% On target shareContext 40%
11.43 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
76% Box shareContext 66%
12% ConversionContext 14%
1.60 OffsidesContext 2.60
15.43 Shots allowedContext 16.86
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.57
4.43 BlocksContext 5.00
3.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29
71% Save rateContext 59%
45% PossessionIn forecast 43%
367 PassesContext 401
283 Accurate passesContext 331
77% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.85 Team ratingContext 6.65
14.71 FoulsContext 11.71
9.29 Fouls sufferedContext 9.14
2.71 Yellow cardsContext 1.71
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.71
+0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
90% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
13.40 ShotsContext 12.10
3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90
27% On target shareContext 41%
10.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.90
74% Box shareContext 67%
12% ConversionContext 13%
1.71 OffsidesContext 2.38
17.30 Shots allowedContext 16.00
5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30
5.30 BlocksContext 5.10
4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
72% Save rateContext 66%
45% PossessionIn forecast 46%
369 PassesContext 396
286 Accurate passesContext 323
78% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.83 Team ratingContext 6.77
13.30 FoulsContext 11.70
8.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brentford
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km795 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 6 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Liverpool1–21.5 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Aston Villa2–21.1 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Chelsea3–01.6 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Bournemouth2–21.0 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Sunderland1–12.0 xPts
Ipswich
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel119 km215 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Manchester City2–30.4 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Fulham2–11.3 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Everton0–10.8 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Crystal Palace3–20.8 xPts
  • L4 SepH · Liverpool0–20.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Brentford Ipswich
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 27 Feb4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 27 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km119 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways795 km215 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one9.89.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brentford Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Liverpool (H) 1–2, 17 Oct
1C. Kelleher(G)
23K. Lewis-Potter 4S. van den Berg 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode
27V. Janelt 6Y. Yarmoliuk
19J. Anthony 8M. Jensen 11D. Ouattara
9Thiago
Ipswich Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Manchester City (A) 2–3, 17 Oct
28C. Walton(G)
24J. Greaves 6I. Diop 26D. O'Shea
3L. Davis 25E. Palacios 12Florentino 42A. Ouattara
10J. Enciso 38D. Maeda
19Emersonn

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Brentford Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Ipswich Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Brentford · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.75
Ipswich · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
1.75
Conceded
2.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentBrentfordIpswich
Liverpool L 1–2 H L 0–2 H
Sunderland D 1–1 H W 2–1 H
Points1 of 6 · 0.50 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Brentford wins0 draws0 Ipswich wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 10 May 2025Ipswich0–1Brentford
  • 26 Oct 2024Brentford4–3Ipswich

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

BrentfordIpswichForecast
Scored per game 1.861.57
Conceded per game 1.142.14
Match goals 3.003.71
Over 1.5 100%86%
Over 2.5 71%71%
Over 3.5 29%43%
Both teams scored 71%71%
Clean sheets 29%0%
Failed to score 0%29%
Games77
BrentfordIpswichForecast
Scored per game 1.601.57
Conceded per game 1.402.14
Match goals 3.003.71
Over 1.5 100%86%
Over 2.5 70%71%
Over 3.5 30%43%
Both teams scored 70%71%
Clean sheets 20%0%
Failed to score 10%29%
Games107

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

BrentfordIpswichLeague
Corners
Corners won3.863.29
Corners conceded5.144.86
Match total9.008.159.49
Over 8.557% 4/729% 2/7
Over 9.557% 4/714% 1/7
Over 10.543% 3/714% 1/7
Cards
Cards3.001.86
Opponent cards1.862.29
Match total4.864.154.17
Over 3.571% 5/771% 5/7
Over 4.557% 4/743% 3/7
BrentfordIpswichLeague
Corners
Corners won4.004.20
Corners conceded6.404.30
Match total10.408.509.49
Over 8.570% 7/1030% 3/10
Over 9.570% 7/1020% 2/10
Over 10.560% 6/1020% 2/10
Cards
Cards2.702.00
Opponent cards2.201.90
Match total4.903.904.17
Over 3.580% 8/1060% 6/10
Over 4.560% 6/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Brentford7 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
2 1 0-15
16-30
4 1 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 3 76-90
Ipswich7 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
4 0-15
4 1 16-30
1 3 31-45
2 46-60
4 61-75
6 1 76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
16-30
5 1 31-45
3 4 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 4 76-90
Ipswich10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
2 4 0-15
4 1 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 3 46-60
4 61-75
8 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Bournemouth Tottenham Mar 320:00 Liverpool Aston Villa Mar 320:00 Arsenal Crystal Palace Mar 320:00 Chelsea Coventry Mar 320:00 Manchester City Everton Mar 320:00 Brighton Fulham Mar 320:00 Brentford Ipswich Mar 320:00 Leeds Hull City Mar 320:00 Nottingham Forest Newcastle Mar 320:00 Sunderland Manchester United Mar 320:00