Brentford vs Everton – 11 Apr 2026

Premier League Gameweek 32 Sat, Apr 11 · 15:00 Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex

Brentford 7th · 46 pts · 31 played LWDDD

2–2Full time

Everton 8th · 46 pts · 31 played LWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brentford were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Everton. Brentford had 20.8 days of rest, Everton 20.9 and had to travel 280 km.

Away travel280 kmRest days20.8 · 20.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Brentford42%

Draw26%

Everton31%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.27

Brentford45%

Draw27%

Everton28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.16

Brentford43%

Draw26%

Everton31%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.25

Brentford35%

Draw27%

Everton38%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.42

Brentford42%

Draw27%

Everton31%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.23

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)

No weather data yet

RefereeFarai Hallam

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.09
Matches 34

Team strength

Brentford

Everton

75 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

73 AttackIn forecast 61

73 DefenceIn forecast 66

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brentford

Everton

1.48 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.19

1.35 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

68% Scored inContext 71%

26% Clean sheetsContext 35%

10.32 ShotsContext 10.97

3.94 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.58

38% On target shareContext 33%

7.93 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

73% Box shareContext 68%

14% ConversionContext 11%

2.13 OffsidesContext 1.95

12.61 Shots allowedContext 13.58

3.97 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.27

4.29 BlocksContext 4.39

2.93 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.97

70% Save rateContext 68%

47% PossessionIn forecast 44%

394 PassesContext 385

310 Accurate passesContext 307

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.97

11.03 FoulsContext 10.48

9.37 Fouls sufferedContext 11.65

1.87 Yellow cardsContext 1.74

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

-0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

50% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.40 ShotsContext 11.20

3.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

32% On target shareContext 40%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 7.78

74% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 13%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.88

12.60 Shots allowedContext 13.70

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.90 BlocksContext 4.00

2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

68% Save rateContext 71%

49% PossessionIn forecast 45%

418 PassesContext 411

328 Accurate passesContext 331

78% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.78 Team ratingContext 7.02

10.80 FoulsContext 10.90

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brentford

Rest20.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Everton

Rest20.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel280 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brentford	Everton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	20.8Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Mar	20.9Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	280 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

23K. Lewis-Potter 22N. Collins 4S. van den Berg 33M. Kayode

8M. Jensen 18Y. Yarmoliuk

7K. Schade 24M. Damsgaard 19D. Ouattara

9Thiago

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 32J. Branthwaite 6J. Tarkowski 15J. O'Brien

37J. Garner 27I. Gueye

10I. Ndiaye 22K. Dewsbury-Hall 7D. McNeil

9Beto

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brentford Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Everton Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brentford-0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Everton+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Brentford · Home 1.73points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 7-5-3
Scored: 1.73
Conceded: 1.13

Everton · Away 1.60points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 7-3-5
Scored: 1.07
Conceded: 1.07

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Brentford	Everton
Leeds	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A
Wolves	D 2–2 HW 2–0 A	D 1–1 HW 3–2 A
Bournemouth	D 0–0 AW 4–1 H	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
Burnley	W 4–3 AW 3–1 H	W 2–0 HD 0–0 A
Brighton	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H
Arsenal	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A	L 0–2 AL 0–1 H
Newcastle	W 3–2 AW 3–1 H	W 3–2 AL 1–4 H
Aston Villa	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H
Nottingham Forest	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A	W 2–0 AW 3–0 H
Chelsea	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	W 3–0 HL 0–2 A
Sunderland	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 A
Tottenham	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A	L 0–3 H
Crystal Palace	L 0–2 A	W 2–1 H
Liverpool	W 3–2 H	L 1–2 A
West Ham	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 H
Manchester City	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 A
Manchester United	W 3–1 H	L 0–1 HW 1–0 A
Fulham	L 1–3 A	W 2–1 AW 2–0 H
Points	43 of 90 · 1.43 per game	46 of 90 · 1.53 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Brentford wins3 draws3 Everton wins

Goals per game1.22 – 1.22 Over 2.533% Both scored56% Clean sheets22% · 33%

4 Jan 2026Everton2–4Brentford
26 Feb 2025Brentford1–1Everton
23 Nov 2024Everton0–0Brentford
27 Apr 2024Everton1–0Brentford
23 Sep 2023Brentford1–3Everton
11 Mar 2023Everton1–0Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brentford	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.48	1.19
Conceded per game	1.35	1.13
Match goals	2.84	2.32	2.79
Over 1.5	81%	74%
Over 2.5	48%	35%	53%
Over 3.5	39%	13%
Both teams scored	52%	42%	57%
Clean sheets	26%	35%
Failed to score	32%	29%
Games	31	31

	Brentford	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.40
Conceded per game	1.40	1.00
Match goals	2.50	2.40	2.79
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	40%	53%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brentford	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.93	4.35
Corners conceded	5.13	5.19
Match total	10.06	9.54	10.05
Over 8.5	70% 21/30	71% 22/31
Over 9.5	63% 19/30	45% 14/31
Over 10.5	53% 16/30	39% 12/31
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.87
Opponent cards	1.84	1.74
Match total	3.74	3.61	3.92
Over 3.5	55% 17/31	48% 15/31
Over 4.5	39% 12/31	42% 13/31

	Brentford	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.70
Corners conceded	5.60	5.10
Match total	10.10	9.80	10.05
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.60
Opponent cards	1.90	1.70
Match total	3.70	3.30	3.92
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Farai Hallam 34 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.56league 3.78

Red cards0.03league 0.13

Cards 5+32%league 40%

Fouls23.0league 21.5

Penalties0.09league 0.22

Home wins32%league 42%

Brentford

No previous matches with this referee.

Everton

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.