Brentford vs Tottenham – 22 Aug 2026

Premier League Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 22 · 17:30 Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex

Brentford

3–0Full time

Tottenham

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brentford were slight favourites.

Brentford were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 64). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Tottenham. Brentford had 90.1 days of rest, Tottenham 90.1 and had to travel 13 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel13 kmRest days90.1 · 90.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Brentford48%

Draw25%

Tottenham27%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.16

Brentford51%

Draw24%

Tottenham25%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.08

Brentford47%

Draw25%

Tottenham28%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.16

Brentford41%

Draw26%

Tottenham34%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.30

Brentford48%

Draw25%

Tottenham27%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.16

Over 2.5 53% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)

22°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 9 km/h
Humidity 32%

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 200

Team strength

Brentford

Tottenham

73 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

73 AttackIn forecast 56

73 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brentford

Tottenham

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

-0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

60% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.60 ShotsContext 13.20

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

30% On target shareContext 37%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 9.20

72% Box shareContext 70%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.75

15.40 Shots allowedContext 11.20

5.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

5.63 BlocksContext 3.50

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

72% Save rateContext 67%

49% PossessionIn forecast 51%

405 PassesContext 417

318 Accurate passesContext 344

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.84

9.20 FoulsContext 14.10

8.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brentford

Rest90.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Tottenham

Rest90.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel13 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brentford	Tottenham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	90.1Premier League 2025-2026, 24 May	90.1Premier League 2025-2026, 24 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	13 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

23K. Lewis-Potter 22N. Collins 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode

18M. Sangaré 27V. Janelt

7K. Schade 8M. Jensen 11D. Ouattara

9Thiago

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31A. Kinský(G)

3A. Robertson 5M. Senesi 6J. van Hecke 14A. Gray

15L. Bergvall 16S. Tonali

11M. Tel 8C. Gallagher 47M. Moore

9Richarlison

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brentford Absences are shown before kick-off

Tottenham Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brentford+0.6 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Tottenham-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Brentford · Home No home games yet this season.

Tottenham · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

1 Brentford wins4 draws5 Tottenham wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.70 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets20% · 50%

1 Jan 2026Brentford0–0Tottenham
6 Dec 2025Tottenham2–0Brentford
2 Feb 2025Brentford0–2Tottenham
21 Sep 2024Tottenham3–1Brentford
31 Jan 2024Tottenham3–2Brentford
13 Aug 2023Brentford2–2Tottenham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brentford	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.78
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	53%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	55%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Brentford	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.00
Conceded per game	1.20	1.40
Match goals	2.30	2.40	2.78
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	55%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brentford	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	7.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.75
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Brentford	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	7.10
Corners conceded	6.20	4.20
Match total	10.20	11.30	7.50
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	3.00
Opponent cards	2.50	2.10
Match total	3.90	5.10	2.75
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.73league 2.40

Red cards0.13league 0.00

Cards 5+35%league 0%

Fouls22.5league 23.4

Penalties0.21league 0.00

Home wins44%league 80%

Brentford11 with this referee

Record5-2-4 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 2

L20 Sep 25A · Fulham1–31
D6 Apr 25H · Chelsea0–01
L21 Dec 24H · Nottingham Forest0–23
W30 Nov 24H · Leicester4–11
L17 Feb 24H · Liverpool1–42

Tottenham15 with this referee

Record5-4-6 Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds3

W24 May 26H · Everton1–03
L22 Mar 26H · Nottingham Forest0–31
L7 Feb 26A · Manchester United0–23
L23 Nov 25A · Arsenal1–43
W16 Aug 25H · Burnley3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.