Brighton vs Aston Villa – 23 Aug 2026

Premier League Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 23 · 14:00 The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex

Brighton

4–0Full time

Aston Villa

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 75). Brighton had 90.9 days of rest, Aston Villa 90.9 and had to travel 219 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel219 kmRest days90.9 · 90.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Brighton37%

Draw25%

Aston Villa38%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.42

Brighton35%

Draw26%

Aston Villa39%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.39

Brighton36%

Draw25%

Aston Villa39%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.46

Brighton30%

Draw25%

Aston Villa45%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.60

Brighton37%

Draw25%

Aston Villa38%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.39

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)

20°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 12 km/h
Humidity 58%

RefereePeter Bankes

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 122

Team strength

Brighton

Aston Villa

75 L90 StrengthIn forecast 86

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

87 AttackIn forecast 83

85 DefenceIn forecast 78

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brighton

Aston Villa

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.66 xGVia Att/Def 1.67

1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext +0.73

70% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.60 ShotsContext 13.10

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.60

38% On target shareContext 43%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.70

73% Box shareContext 66%

10% ConversionContext 18%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.50

9.80 Shots allowedContext 11.10

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

2.56 BlocksContext 3.63

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

73% Save rateContext 69%

58% PossessionIn forecast 51%

489 PassesContext 404

408 Accurate passesContext 344

84% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.94

11.60 FoulsContext 11.10

9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brighton

Rest90.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Aston Villa

Rest90.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel219 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brighton	Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	90.9Premier League 2025-2026, 24 May	90.9Premier League 2025-2026, 24 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	219 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	8.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

21O. Boscagli 5L. Dunk 44L. Vušković 27M. Wieffer

26Y. Ayari 13P. Groß

29M. De Cuyper 8J. Hinshelwood 25D. Gómez

10G. Rutter

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

40M. Bizot(G)

22I. Maatsen 14Pau Torres 3V. Lindelöf 2M. Cash

35João Gomes 8B. Kamara

53George Hemmings 6R. Barkley 7J. McGinn

10E. Buendía

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brighton Absences are shown before kick-off

Aston Villa Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brighton+1.6 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Aston Villa-1.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Brighton · Home No home games yet this season.

Aston Villa · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

1 Brighton wins1 draws8 Aston Villa wins

Goals per game0.90 – 2.40 Over 2.560% Both scored50% Clean sheets10% · 40%

11 Feb 2026Aston Villa1–0Brighton
3 Dec 2025Brighton3–4Aston Villa
2 Apr 2025Brighton0–3Aston Villa
30 Dec 2024Aston Villa2–2Brighton
5 May 2024Brighton1–0Aston Villa
30 Sep 2023Aston Villa6–1Brighton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brighton	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.85
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	54%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	58%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Brighton	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	2.40
Conceded per game	1.10	1.20
Match goals	2.50	3.60	2.85
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	54%
Over 3.5	20%	50%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brighton	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.60
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Brighton	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.44	5.50
Corners conceded	5.33	4.20
Match total	10.77	9.70	8.00
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.30
Opponent cards	2.00	1.70
Match total	3.80	3.00	2.60
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Peter Bankes 122 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.05league 2.33

Red cards0.11league 0.00

Cards 5+43%league 0%

Fouls21.5league 24.7

Penalties0.15league 0.17

Home wins51%league 83%

Brighton12 with this referee

Record5-2-5 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 4 Reds1

L11 Feb 26A · Aston Villa0–13
L13 Sep 25A · Bournemouth1–24
W19 Jan 25A · Manchester United3–13
L5 Dec 24A · Fulham1–32
W19 Oct 24A · Newcastle1–02

Aston Villa12 with this referee

Record7-2-3 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.4 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

W11 Feb 26H · Brighton1–02
W6 Dec 25H · Arsenal2–10
W16 May 25H · Tottenham2–01
D26 Jan 25H · West Ham1–12
W21 Dec 24H · Manchester City2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.