Brighton vs Fulham – 16 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 16 · 15:00 The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex

Brighton

1–1Full time

Fulham

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brighton were slight favourites.

Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 65). Brighton had ? days of rest, Fulham ? and had to travel 72 km.

Away travel72 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Brighton52%

Draw24%

Fulham24%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.17

Brighton50%

Draw26%

Fulham24%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.08

Brighton51%

Draw24%

Fulham24%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.16

Brighton44%

Draw26%

Fulham31%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.32

Brighton51%

Draw25%

Fulham24%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.09

Over 2.5 57% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)

No weather data yet

RefereeSamuel Barrott

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 61

Team strength

Brighton

Fulham

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

87 AttackIn forecast 66

85 DefenceIn forecast 68

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fulham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brighton

Fulham

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.71 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.54

+0.29 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

90% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.60 ShotsContext 13.50

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

38% On target shareContext 33%

9.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

66% Box shareContext 65%

14% ConversionContext 10%

1.56 OffsidesContext 1.57

11.50 Shots allowedContext 12.70

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

3.22 BlocksContext 3.90

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

59% Save rateContext 65%

53% PossessionIn forecast 52%

456 PassesContext 438

387 Accurate passesContext 370

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.97

10.80 FoulsContext 11.90

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 8.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brighton

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fulham

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel72 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brighton	Fulham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	72 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	8	8.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

29M. De Cuyper 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 27M. Wieffer

26Y. Ayari 17C. Baleba

22K. Mitoma 33M. O'Riley 11Y. Minteh

10G. Rutter

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Fulham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Leno(G)

3C. Bassey 15Jorge Cuenca 5J. Andersen 2K. Tete

16S. Berge 20S. Lukić

17A. Iwobi 24J. King 8H. Wilson

7R. Jiménez

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brighton Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fulham Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brighton+0.5 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Fulham-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Brighton · Home No home games yet this season.

Fulham · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Brighton wins3 draws4 Fulham wins

Goals per game0.63 – 1.38 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 50%

8 Mar 2025Brighton2–1Fulham
5 Dec 2024Fulham3–1Brighton
2 Mar 2024Fulham3–0Brighton
29 Oct 2023Brighton1–1Fulham
18 Feb 2023Brighton0–1Fulham
30 Aug 2022Fulham2–1Brighton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brighton	Fulham	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.98
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	58%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Brighton	Fulham	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.98
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	58%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brighton	Fulham	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	11.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Brighton	Fulham	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	4.33
Corners conceded	3.67	5.00
Match total	8.78	9.33	11.00
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.80
Opponent cards	2.30	1.20
Match total	4.40	3.00	3.00
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Samuel Barrott 61 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.61league 2.50

Red cards0.07league 0.50

Cards 5+31%league 0%

Fouls20.5league 20.5

Penalties0.21league 0.00

Home wins38%league 50%

Brighton4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

W9 Nov 24H · Manchester City2–13
D14 Sep 24H · Ipswich0–04
L10 Feb 24A · Tottenham1–23
D2 Jan 24A · West Ham0–00

Fulham3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W26 Dec 24A · Chelsea2–13
L16 Dec 23A · Newcastle0–33
W7 Oct 23H · Sheffield Utd3–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.