Brighton vs Liverpool – 21 Mar 2026

Premier League Gameweek 31 Sat, Mar 21 · 12:30 The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex

Brighton 12th · 40 pts · 30 played LWWLW

2–1Full time

Liverpool 5th · 49 pts · 30 played WWWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were slight favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 76). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Liverpool. Brighton had 6.9 days of rest, Liverpool 5.8 and had to travel 345 km.

Away travel345 kmRest days6.9 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Brighton33%

Draw25%

Liverpool42%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.61

Brighton34%

Draw27%

Liverpool39%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.39

Brighton33%

Draw25%

Liverpool42%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.63

Brighton26%

Draw24%

Liverpool50%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.81

Brighton33%

Draw27%

Liverpool40%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.46

Over 2.5 58% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)

No weather data yet

RefereeDarren England

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 117

Team strength

Brighton

Liverpool

76 L90 StrengthIn forecast 86

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

87 AttackIn forecast 85

85 DefenceIn forecast 84

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brighton

Liverpool

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.63

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.45 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

77% Scored inContext 87%

23% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.73 ShotsContext 15.80

4.37 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.66

34% On target shareContext 29%

8.13 Shots in the boxContext 10.23

65% Box shareContext 65%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.44

12.20 Shots allowedContext 10.90

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.96

3.58 BlocksContext 3.43

2.77 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

71% Save rateContext 67%

53% PossessionIn forecast 60%

472 PassesContext 542

396 Accurate passesContext 465

84% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.95

12.10 FoulsContext 9.63

10.23 Fouls sufferedContext 10.63

2.47 Yellow cardsContext 1.47

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.18 xGVia Att/Def 2.44

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.80 ShotsContext 20.20

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.90

36% On target shareContext 34%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.60

68% Box shareContext 67%

9% ConversionContext 12%

2.44 OffsidesContext 2.11

11.80 Shots allowedContext 10.50

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30

3.50 BlocksContext 3.44

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

81% Save rateContext 76%

54% PossessionIn forecast 56%

480 PassesContext 478

398 Accurate passesContext 401

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.90 Team ratingContext 7.10

12.00 FoulsContext 12.10

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brighton

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km915 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Liverpool

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel345 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brighton	Liverpool
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Mar	5.8Premier League 2025-2026, 15 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	345 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	915 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	21.1	21.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 27M. Wieffer

30P. Groß 20J. Milner

11Y. Minteh 13J. Hinshelwood 25D. Gómez

18D. Welbeck

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-3-1-2

25G. Mamardashvili(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 30J. Frimpong

7F. Wirtz 38R. Gravenberch 8D. Szoboszlai

10A. Mac Allister

18C. Gakpo 22H. Ekitiké

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brighton Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Liverpool Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brighton+0.4 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Liverpool-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Brighton · Home 1.60points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 6-6-3
Scored: 1.47
Conceded: 1.07

Liverpool · Away 1.40points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 6-3-6
Scored: 1.47
Conceded: 1.53

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Brighton	Liverpool
Sunderland	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H
Arsenal	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Nottingham Forest	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A	W 1–0 AL 0–3 H
Brentford	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	L 2–3 A
Aston Villa	L 0–1 AL 3–4 H	W 2–0 H
Crystal Palace	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A	L 1–2 A
Everton	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A	W 2–1 H
Fulham	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	D 2–2 A
Bournemouth	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	L 2–3 AW 4–2 H
Manchester City	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	L 1–2 HL 0–3 A
Burnley	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 HW 1–0 A
West Ham	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H	W 5–2 HW 2–0 A
Leeds	W 3–0 H	D 0–0 HD 3–3 A
Manchester United	L 2–4 A	L 1–2 H
Newcastle	W 2–1 H	W 4–1 HW 3–2 A
Wolves	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H
Chelsea	W 3–1 A	L 1–2 A
Tottenham	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A
Points	40 of 87 · 1.38 per game	46 of 87 · 1.59 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

3 Brighton wins3 draws4 Liverpool wins

Goals per game1.60 – 1.70 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%

13 Dec 2025Liverpool2–0Brighton
19 May 2025Brighton3–2Liverpool
2 Nov 2024Liverpool2–1Brighton
31 Mar 2024Liverpool2–1Brighton
8 Oct 2023Brighton2–2Liverpool
14 Jan 2023Brighton3–0Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brighton	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.63
Conceded per game	1.20	1.33
Match goals	2.50	2.97	3.04
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	43%	60%	58%
Over 3.5	17%	27%
Both teams scored	60%	63%	61%
Clean sheets	23%	30%
Failed to score	23%	13%
Games	30	30

	Brighton	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.70
Conceded per game	0.90	1.20
Match goals	1.80	2.90	3.04
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	20%	50%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	61%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brighton	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	4.77	6.10
Corners conceded	4.73	4.52
Match total	9.50	10.62	10.00
Over 8.5	57% 17/30	79% 23/29
Over 9.5	53% 16/30	55% 16/29
Over 10.5	40% 12/30	45% 13/29
Cards
Cards	2.47	1.50
Opponent cards	2.00	2.03
Match total	4.47	3.53	3.91
Over 3.5	70% 21/30	47% 14/30
Over 4.5	43% 13/30	27% 8/30

	Brighton	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	7.30
Corners conceded	5.10	4.50
Match total	9.70	11.80	10.00
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.10
Opponent cards	1.90	1.60
Match total	3.90	2.70	3.91
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Darren England 117 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.20league 3.77

Red cards0.12league 0.13

Cards 5+42%league 40%

Fouls22.2league 21.5

Penalties0.27league 0.22

Home wins44%league 41%

Brighton11 with this referee

Record4-5-2 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

D20 Dec 25H · Sunderland0–02
W31 Aug 25H · Manchester City2–12
W26 Apr 25H · West Ham3–21
D11 May 24A · Newcastle1–14
L18 Feb 23H · Fulham0–10

Liverpool7 with this referee

Record3-3-1 Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

W30 Nov 25A · West Ham2–00
W20 Sep 25H · Everton2–12
D25 May 25H · Crystal Palace1–13
W1 Feb 25A · Bournemouth2–03
D28 May 23A · Southampton4–42

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.