Brighton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Premier League
Gameweek 17 Sat, Dec 20 · 15:00
The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Our take
Brighton were clear favourites.
Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 49). Brighton had 7 days of rest, Sunderland 6 and had to travel 458 km.
Away travel458 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Brighton63%
Draw21%
Sunderland16%
Brighton61%
Draw22%
Sunderland16%
Brighton63%
Draw21%
Sunderland16%
Brighton56%
Draw24%
Sunderland21%
Brighton62%
Draw22%
Sunderland16%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)
No weather data yet
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 109
Team strength
Brighton
Sunderland
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
87
AttackIn forecast
62
85
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrightonSunderland
1.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.19
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.06
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
81%
Scored inContext
69%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
13.50
ShotsContext
9.31
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.07
34%
On target shareContext
31%
8.56
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
64%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.64
OffsidesContext
1.92
12.00
Shots allowedContext
14.69
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.00
BlocksContext
4.38
2.69
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
67%
Save rateContext
78%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
459
PassesContext
369
386
Accurate passesContext
292
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.06
FoulsContext
9.81
10.13
Fouls sufferedContext
10.56
2.44
Yellow cardsContext
2.06
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.10
ShotsContext
8.70
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
33%
On target shareContext
35%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.38
64%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.11
12.50
Shots allowedContext
16.10
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.33
BlocksContext
4.60
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
71%
Save rateContext
71%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
511
PassesContext
363
437
Accurate passesContext
283
85%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.00
FoulsContext
10.50
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brighton
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km691 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sunderland
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel458 km336 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brighton |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 6Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 458 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 691 km | 336 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brighton
Confirmed XI
1B. Verbruggen(G)
24F. Kadıoğlu
21O. Boscagli
42D. Coppola
27M. Wieffer
13J. Hinshelwood
26Y. Ayari
29M. De Cuyper
8B. Gruda
11Y. Minteh
10G. Rutter
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
32T. Hume
15O. Alderete
5D. Ballard
20N. Mukiele
6L. Geertruida
34G. Xhaka
24S. Adingra
28E. Le Fée
11C. Rigg
9B. Brobbey
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brighton
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sunderland
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brighton+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Sunderland-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Brighton · Home
1.88points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.38
Sunderland · Away
1.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Brighton | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| West Ham | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Aston Villa | L 3–4 H | D 1–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Brentford | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Manchester United | L 2–4 A | L 0–2 A |
| Newcastle | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Wolves | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Chelsea | W 3–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Bournemouth | L 1–2 A | W 3–2 H |
| Manchester City | W 2–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Everton | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Fulham | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 19 of 42 · 1.36 per game | 25 of 42 · 1.79 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Brighton | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 1.19 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 1.06 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.25 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 94% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 38% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 44% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 31% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Brighton | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brighton | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.81 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 8.37 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 10/16 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 10/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 9/16 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 2.19 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 1.81 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.00 | 3.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 11/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 7/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Brighton | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 7.80 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.50 | 3.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 109 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.16league 3.68
Red cards0.11league 0.11
Cards 5+40%league 39%
Fouls22.2league 22.0
Penalties0.28league 0.20
Home wins44%league 48%
Brighton10 with this referee
Record4-4-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W31 Aug 25H · Manchester City2–12
- W26 Apr 25H · West Ham3–21
- D11 May 24A · Newcastle1–14
- L18 Feb 23H · Fulham0–10
- W14 Jan 23H · Liverpool3–01
Sunderland2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L22 Nov 25A · Fulham0–13
- D4 Feb 24A · Middlesbrough1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brighton16 games · scored 25 · conceded 23
3
1
0-15
1
6
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
11
5
76-90
Sunderland16 games · scored 19 · conceded 17
5
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
5
0-15
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
