Brighton
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Premier League
Gameweek 36 Sat, May 9 · 15:00
The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Brighton70.9%fair odds 1.41
Draw17.4%fair odds 5.74
Wolves11.6%fair odds 8.59
Expected goals2.48 – 0.92total 3.40
Likeliest score2–010.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Wolves
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Brighton ↓ · Wolves → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Brighton goals, columns Wolves goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.2%9.77
- 2–19.5%10.58
- 3–08.5%11.83
- 1–18.0%12.44
- 1–07.9%12.71
- 3–17.8%12.82
- 4–05.2%19.11
- 4–14.8%20.70
- 2–24.4%22.93
- 0–03.7%26.71
Winning margin
28.6%
Brighton by 3+
fair 3.50
20.6%
Brighton by 2
fair 4.84
21.7%
Brighton by 1
fair 4.61
17.4%
Draw
fair 5.74
7.8%
Wolves by 1
fair 12.77
2.9%
Wolves by 2
fair 34.88
0.9%
Wolves by 3+
fair 106.28
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
19%4
26%5+
Brighton goals
8%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
24%4+
Wolves goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 70.9% | 69.1% | +1.9 pp |
| Draw | 17.4% | 18.7% | -1.3 pp |
| Wolves win | 11.6% | 12.2% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 66.0% | 61.8% | +4.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.6% | 53.1% | +2.5 pp |
| Expected goals Brighton | 2.48 | 2.31 | +0.16 |
| Expected goals Wolves | 0.92 | 0.88 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Brighton win70.9%1.41
- Draw17.4%5.74
- Wolves win11.6%8.59
- Double chance Brighton or draw88.4%1.13
- Double chance Brighton or Wolves82.6%1.21
- Double chance Wolves or draw29.1%3.44
- Draw no bet Brighton85.9%1.16
- Draw no bet Wolves14.1%7.10
Goals
- Over 0.596.3%1.04
- Over 1.585.7%1.17
- Over 2.566.0%1.51
- Over 3.544.2%2.26
- Over 4.525.6%3.91
- Under 1.514.3%7.00
- Under 2.534.0%2.94
- Under 3.555.8%1.79
Both teams to score
- Yes55.6%1.80
- No44.4%2.25
- Yes and over 2.547.6%2.10
- Brighton win and yes34.9%2.86
- Draw and yes13.7%7.31
- Wolves win and yes7.0%14.33
Team goals
- Brighton over 0.591.6%1.09
- Brighton over 1.570.8%1.41
- Brighton over 2.545.0%2.22
- Wolves over 0.560.3%1.66
- Wolves over 1.523.6%4.24
- Wolves over 2.56.7%15.00
- Brighton clean sheet39.7%2.52
- Wolves clean sheet8.4%11.90
- Brighton win to nil36.0%2.78
- Wolves win to nil4.7%21.46
Handicap
- Brighton −1.549.3%2.03
- Brighton −2.528.6%3.50
- Wolves +1.550.7%1.97
- Wolves +2.571.4%1.40
- Wolves −1.53.8%26.26
- Brighton +1.596.2%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored350
Favourite won49.4%
Avg chance given to result39.1%
1X2 Brier0.621
Over 2.5 called right56.0%
BTTS called right55.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 52 | 38.4% | 36.5% |
| 40–50% | 128 | 45.0% | 46.1% |
| 50–60% | 95 | 54.9% | 52.6% |
| 60–70% | 46 | 64.2% | 58.7% |
| 70–80% | 26 | 73.5% | 57.7% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 286 of 350 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6159 | 0.6031 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.4% | 40.2% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 51.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 286 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 350 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.