Brighton vs Wolves – 9 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 36 Sat, May 9 · 15:00 The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex

Brighton 8th · 50 pts · 35 played WWDWL

3–0Full time

Wolves 20th · 18 pts · 35 played DLLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brighton were clear favourites.

Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Brighton. Brighton had 7 days of rest, Wolves 7 and had to travel 238 km.

Away travel238 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2

Brighton71%

Draw17%

Wolves12%

Expected goals 2.48 – 0.92

Brighton66%

Draw21%

Wolves13%

Expected goals 2.11 – 0.85

Brighton70%

Draw18%

Wolves12%

Expected goals 2.42 – 0.91

Brighton64%

Draw20%

Wolves16%

Expected goals 2.21 – 1.03

Brighton69%

Draw19%

Wolves12%

Expected goals 2.31 – 0.88

Over 2.5 66% Both score 56% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)

No weather data yet

RefereeJohn Brooks

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 101

Team strength

Brighton

Wolves

78 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

87 AttackIn forecast 41

85 DefenceIn forecast 46

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brighton

Wolves

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.49 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

80% Scored inContext 49%

26% Clean sheetsContext 11%

12.83 ShotsContext 9.63

4.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.38

36% On target shareContext 34%

8.43 Shots in the boxContext 6.25

67% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 7%

2.22 OffsidesContext 1.74

12.00 Shots allowedContext 13.86

4.09 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.71

3.42 BlocksContext 4.43

2.91 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.94

71% Save rateContext 62%

53% PossessionIn forecast 44%

471 PassesContext 374

395 Accurate passesContext 299

84% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.72

12.17 FoulsContext 12.91

10.14 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.43 Yellow cardsContext 2.11

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 35 and 35 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.40 xGVia Att/Def 0.85

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.85

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

80% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.40 ShotsContext 10.20

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

43% On target shareContext 34%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 6.44

69% Box shareContext 58%

12% ConversionContext 9%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.11

11.60 Shots allowedContext 15.80

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

3.22 BlocksContext 4.33

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

81% Save rateContext 65%

54% PossessionIn forecast 44%

463 PassesContext 353

382 Accurate passesContext 280

83% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.82

13.00 FoulsContext 10.70

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brighton

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km936 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Wolves

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel238 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brighton	Wolves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 2 May	7Premier League 2025-2026, 2 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	238 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	936 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

29M. De Cuyper 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 24F. Kadıoğlu

30P. Groß 17C. Baleba

22K. Mitoma 13J. Hinshelwood 11Y. Minteh

18D. Welbeck

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

25D. Bentley(G)

24Toti Gomes 4S. Bueno 15Y. Mosquera

3Hugo Bueno 7André 8João Gomes 17Pedro Lima

36Mateus Mané 9A. Armstrong

11H. Hwang

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brighton Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Wolves Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brighton+0.6 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Wolves-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Brighton · Home 1.76points per game · 17 home games

W-D-L: 8-6-3
Scored: 1.59
Conceded: 1.00

Wolves · Away 0.29points per game · 17 away games

W-D-L: 0-5-12
Scored: 0.41
Conceded: 1.76

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Brighton	Wolves
Newcastle	L 1–3 AW 2–1 H	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Chelsea	W 3–0 HW 3–1 A	L 1–3 HL 0–3 A
Tottenham	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A
Burnley	W 2–0 AW 2–0 H	L 2–3 H
Liverpool	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A
Sunderland	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Arsenal	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	D 2–2 HL 1–2 A
Nottingham Forest	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A	D 0–0 AL 0–1 H
Brentford	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	D 2–2 AL 0–2 H
Aston Villa	L 0–1 AL 3–4 H	W 2–0 HL 0–1 A
Crystal Palace	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H
Everton	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 AL 2–3 H
Fulham	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	L 0–3 A
Bournemouth	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A
Manchester City	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	L 0–2 AL 0–4 H
West Ham	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H	L 0–4 AW 3–0 H
Leeds	W 3–0 H	L 0–3 AL 1–3 H
Manchester United	L 2–4 A	D 1–1 AL 1–4 H
Points	49 of 102 · 1.44 per game	17 of 102 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

5 Brighton wins3 draws2 Wolves wins

Goals per game2.10 – 0.80 Over 2.550% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 30%

5 Oct 2025Wolves1–1Brighton
10 May 2025Wolves0–2Brighton
26 Oct 2024Brighton2–2Wolves
28 Feb 2024Wolves1–0Brighton
22 Jan 2024Brighton0–0Wolves
19 Aug 2023Wolves1–4Brighton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brighton	Wolves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	0.71
Conceded per game	1.20	1.80
Match goals	2.60	2.51	3.40
Over 1.5	83%	77%
Over 2.5	49%	46%	66%
Over 3.5	20%	26%
Both teams scored	60%	43%	56%
Clean sheets	26%	11%
Failed to score	20%	51%
Games	35	35

	Brighton	Wolves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.90
Conceded per game	0.90	1.50
Match goals	2.40	2.40	3.40
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	66%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	56%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brighton	Wolves	League
Corners
Corners won	4.86	3.56
Corners conceded	4.91	6.00
Match total	9.77	9.56	10.04
Over 8.5	63% 22/35	72% 23/32
Over 9.5	60% 21/35	63% 20/32
Over 10.5	46% 16/35	38% 12/32
Cards
Cards	2.43	2.20
Opponent cards	2.11	1.80
Match total	4.54	4.00	3.92
Over 3.5	69% 24/35	60% 21/35
Over 4.5	43% 15/35	43% 15/35

	Brighton	Wolves	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	3.56
Corners conceded	5.70	5.33
Match total	10.40	8.89	10.04
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	2.50
Match total	4.50	4.70	3.92
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · John Brooks 101 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.38league 3.80

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+49%league 39%

Fouls22.6league 21.6

Penalties0.24league 0.21

Home wins54%league 43%

Brighton7 with this referee

Record2-2-3 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.9 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L27 Dec 25A · Arsenal1–23
L6 Apr 24H · Arsenal0–31
D21 Dec 23A · Crystal Palace1–12
D12 Nov 23H · Sheffield Utd1–14
W24 Sep 23H · Bournemouth3–13

Wolves6 with this referee

Record1-2-3 Cards · opp.3.2 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L1 Nov 25A · Fulham0–34
L9 Dec 24A · West Ham1–24
L13 May 23A · Manchester United0–22
W3 Sep 22H · Southampton1–04
D13 Aug 22H · Fulham0–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.