UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 23 · 20:00 Stadion Wankdorf, Bern
BSC Young Boys 20th · 3 pts · 2 played
3–2Full time
Ludogorets 22nd · 3 pts · 2 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

BSC Young Boys were slight favourites.

BSC Young Boys were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 26). BSC Young Boys had 21.1 days of rest, Ludogorets 21.1 and had to travel 1,536 km.

Away travel1,536 kmRest days21.1 · 21.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
BSC Young Boys56%
Draw24%
Ludogorets20%
Expected goals 1.85 – 1.03
BSC Young Boys56%
Draw24%
Ludogorets20%
Expected goals 1.81 – 0.99
BSC Young Boys57%
Draw24%
Ludogorets20%
Expected goals 1.87 – 1.02
BSC Young Boys48%
Draw26%
Ludogorets26%
Expected goals 1.65 – 1.16
BSC Young Boys55%
Draw24%
Ludogorets20%
Expected goals 1.79 – 1.00
Over 2.5 55% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bern)

No weather data yet

Referee · FinlandMohammad Al-Emara
  • Cards per match 5.1
  • Penalties per match 0.45
  • Matches 11

Team strength

BSC Young BoysLudogorets
44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26
42 Current StrengthIn forecast 27
45 AttackIn forecast 27
36 DefenceIn forecast 28
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

BSC Young Boys

Attack—
Defense risk—

Ludogorets

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

BSC Young BoysLudogorets
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
0.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.70
0.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.56
+0.53 Goals minus xGContext -0.70
100% Scored inContext 50%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
17.50 ShotsContext 17.00
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
34% On target shareContext 32%
13.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.50
78% Box shareContext 45%
9% ConversionContext 6%
— OffsidesContext 2.00
17.00 Shots allowedContext 9.50
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
2.00 BlocksContext —
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
56% Save rateContext 71%
54% PossessionIn forecast 47%
456 PassesContext 424
383 Accurate passesContext 355
84% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.79 Team ratingContext 6.81
15.00 FoulsContext 11.50
8.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
0.78 xGVia Att/Def —
1.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+0.22 Goals minus xGContext —
70% Scored inContext 60%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
11.30 ShotsContext 16.17
3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
27% On target shareContext 31%
7.63 Shots in the boxContext 7.75
61% Box shareContext 55%
9% ConversionContext 7%
1.67 OffsidesContext 1.67
16.50 Shots allowedContext 12.17
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33
5.22 BlocksContext 3.40
3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40
61% Save rateContext 63%
47% PossessionIn forecast 51%
387 PassesContext 391
314 Accurate passesContext 319
81% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.70 Team ratingContext 6.82
15.70 FoulsContext 13.33
9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.17
2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

BSC Young Boys
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Ludogorets
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,536 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
BSC Young Boys Ludogorets
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match21.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct21.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,536 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 20 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one1414

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

BSC Young Boys Confirmed XI
4-4-2
1M. Keller(G)
3J. Hadjam 23L. Benito 4B. Zoukrou 2R. Andrews
77J. Monteiro 6E. Fernandes 45R. Raveloson 39D. Males
37A. Gigović 29C. Bedia
+4 more reported missing outside this XI
Ludogorets Confirmed XI
3-4-1-2
39H. Bonmann(G)
3A. Nedyalkov 4Dinis Almeida 24O. Verdon
2E. Andersson 14P. Stanić 23Deroy Duarte 99S. Ivanov
26F. Kaloč
11Caio Vidal 37B. Tekpetey
+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
BSC Young Boys Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Ludogorets Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • BSC Young Boys-0.7 pp
  • Draw+0.2 pp
  • Ludogorets+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

BSC Young Boys · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
4.00
Ludogorets · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

BSC Young BoysLudogoretsForecast
Scored per game 1.501.00
Conceded per game 2.001.50
Match goals 3.502.50 2.88
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 50%50% 55%
Over 3.5 50%0%
Both teams scored 50%50% 55%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games22
BSC Young BoysLudogoretsForecast
Scored per game 1.501.00
Conceded per game 2.001.50
Match goals 3.502.50 2.88
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 50%50% 55%
Over 3.5 50%0%
Both teams scored 50%50% 55%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games22

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

BSC Young BoysLudogoretsLeague
Corners
Corners won6.004.00
Corners conceded6.003.00
Match total12.007.008.98
Over 8.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 9.5100% 2/20% 0/2
Over 10.5100% 2/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards2.002.00
Opponent cards0.503.00
Match total2.505.004.20
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.50% 0/250% 1/2
BSC Young BoysLudogoretsLeague
Corners
Corners won5.113.33
Corners conceded6.784.67
Match total11.898.008.98
Over 8.589% 8/950% 3/6
Over 9.589% 8/917% 1/6
Over 10.589% 8/917% 1/6
Cards
Cards2.602.30
Opponent cards1.103.10
Match total3.705.404.20
Over 3.560% 6/1090% 9/10
Over 4.540% 4/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mohammad Al-Emara Finland · 11 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.82league 4.09
Red cards0.27league 0.11
Cards 5+45%league 39%
Fouls22.1league 25.2
Penalties0.45league 0.36
Home wins27%league 45%
BSC Young Boys

No previous matches with this referee.

Ludogorets

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

BSC Young Boys2 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
1 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
76-90
Ludogorets2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
61-75
1 76-90
BSC Young Boys10 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
4 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
2 5 31-45
1 2 46-60
5 61-75
4 76-90
Ludogorets10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
2 0-15
4 16-30
1 3 31-45
3 46-60
3 61-75
6 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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