Cagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Como. Cagliari had 7.8 days of rest, Como 7 and had to travel 731 km.
Away travel731 kmRest days7.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cagliari18%
Draw26%
Como56%
Cagliari26%
Draw26%
Como48%
Cagliari19%
Draw26%
Como55%
Cagliari14%
Draw23%
Como63%
Cagliari19%
Draw25%
Como56%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cagliari)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLivio Marinelli
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 59
Team strength
Cagliari
Como
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
31
AttackIn forecast
72
31
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CagliariComo
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.74
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
63%
Scored inContext
74%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
48%
9.96
ShotsContext
14.00
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.96
34%
On target shareContext
35%
6.28
Shots in the boxContext
8.96
59%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.16
OffsidesContext
1.47
13.11
Shots allowedContext
9.11
4.85
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.46
4.04
BlocksContext
2.86
3.65
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.64
73%
Save rateContext
74%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
388
PassesContext
524
316
Accurate passesContext
457
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.92
14.30
FoulsContext
13.26
14.52
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
2.37
Yellow cardsContext
2.19
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
50%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.30
ShotsContext
14.70
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
29%
On target shareContext
36%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
10.22
62%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.80
Shots allowedContext
7.30
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.90
4.20
BlocksContext
2.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
70%
Save rateContext
72%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
425
PassesContext
575
355
Accurate passesContext
512
84%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.93
13.30
FoulsContext
11.30
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cagliari
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,254 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Como
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel731 km273 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cagliari |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Feb | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 731 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,254 km | 273 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
15J. Rodríguez
22A. Dossena
32Zé Pedro
25I. Sulemana
27J. Liteta
8M. Adopo
94S. Esposito
90M. Folorunsho
2M. Palestra
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
18Alberto Moreno
2M. Kempf
14Jacobo Ramón
77I. Van der Brempt
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
17Jesús Rodríguez
20M. Baturina
10N. Paz
11A. Douvikas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cagliari
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cagliari-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Como+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cagliari · Home
1.23points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-5
- Scored
- 1.15
- Conceded
- 1.15
Como · Away
1.69points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-3
- Scored
- 1.54
- Conceded
- 0.77
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Cagliari | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Parma | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Lazio | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Lecce | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Verona | W 4–0 HD 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Juventus | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Genoa | L 0–3 AD 3–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Cremonese | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Torino | W 2–1 A | W 6–0 HW 5–1 A |
| Pisa | D 2–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Atalanta | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Bologna | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Udinese | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Inter | L 0–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Napoli | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 29 of 78 · 1.12 per game | 47 of 78 · 1.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Cagliari wins2 draws1 Como wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 8 Nov 2025Como0–0Cagliari
- 10 May 2025Como3–1Cagliari
- 26 Aug 2024Cagliari1–1Como
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cagliari | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.74 | |
| Match goals | 2.41 | 2.37 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 41% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 41% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 48% | |
| Failed to score | 37% | 26% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Cagliari | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.90 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cagliari | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.68 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.17 | |
| Match total | 8.68 | 7.05 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 12/25 | 25% 6/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 24% 6/25 | 17% 4/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 16% 4/25 | 13% 3/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.41 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.89 | 2.15 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.45 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 18/27 | 67% 18/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 12/27 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Cagliari | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 6.60 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.30 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Livio Marinelli Italy · 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 3.77
Red cards0.22league 0.19
Cards 5+42%league 37%
Fouls23.6league 25.2
Penalties0.32league 0.31
Home wins44%league 39%
Cagliari3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L23 Apr 25H · Fiorentina1–22
- D6 Oct 24A · Juventus1–12
- D18 Aug 24H · AS Roma0–02
ComoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cagliari27 games · scored 29 · conceded 36
5
0-15
2
6
16-30
8
4
31-45
4
4
46-60
7
7
61-75
8
10
76-90
Como26 games · scored 42 · conceded 19
8
3
0-15
6
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
5
46-60
9
3
61-75
9
4
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Como10 games · scored 21 · conceded 8
4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
